Related papers: Data-Driven Risk Measurement by SV-GARCH-EVT Model
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We study the problem of modelling high-dimensional, heavy-tailed time series data via a factor-adjusted vector autoregressive (VAR) model, which simultaneously accounts for pervasive co-movements of the variables by a handful of factors, as…
Value-at-risk (VaR) has been playing the role of a standard risk measure since its introduction. In practice, the delta-normal approach is usually adopted to approximate the VaR of portfolios with option positions. Its effectiveness,…
This paper applies the Extreme-Value (EV) Generalised Pareto distribution to the extreme tails of the return distributions for the S&P500, FT100, DAX, Hang Seng, and Nikkei225 futures contracts. It then uses tail estimators from these…
We propose a new financial model, the stochastic volatility model with sticky drawdown and drawup processes (SVSDU model), which enables us to capture the features of winning and losing streaks that are common across financial markets but…
In this paper, we propose a novel frequency-severity joint trip-level risk index that combines the frequency of abnormal driving patterns with a severity component reflecting how extreme such behavior is relative to a portfolio-level…
Accurate volatility forecasting is essential in banking, investment, and risk management, because expectations about future market movements directly influence current decisions. This study proposes a hybrid modelling framework that…
Recent advancements in Distributional Reinforcement Learning (DRL) for modeling loss distributions have shown promise in developing hedging strategies in derivatives markets. A common approach in DRL involves learning the quantiles of loss…
We provided proof here that coefficient of variation (CV) is a direct measure of risk using an equation that has been derived here for the first time. We also presented a method to generate a stock CV based on return that strongly…
This paper addresses the challenges faced in large-volume trading, where executing substantial orders can result in significant market impact and slippage. To mitigate these effects, this study proposes a volatility-volume-based order…
Stochastic variational inference algorithms are derived for fitting various heteroskedastic time series models. We examine Gaussian, t, and skew-t response GARCH models and fit these using Gaussian variational approximating densities. We…
This paper explores the applications of the 20/60/20 rule-a heuristic method that segments data into top-performing, average-performing, and underperforming groups-in mathematical finance. We review the statistical foundations of this rule…
Realised volatility has become increasingly prominent in volatility forecasting due to its ability to capture intraday price fluctuations. With a growing variety of realised volatility estimators, each with unique advantages and…
This paper applies the realized exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (REGARCH) model to analyze the Nikkei 225 index from 2010 to 2017, utilizing realized variance (RV) and realized range-based volatility…
Portfolio selection in the periodic investment of securities modeled by a multivariate Merton model with dependent jumps is considered. The optimization framework is designed to maximize expected terminal wealth when portfolio risk is…
This paper investigates the dynamics of risk transmission in cryptocurrency markets and proposes a novel framework for volatility forecasting. The framework uncovers two key empirical facts: the asymmetric amplification of volatility…
This paper presents a novel semiparametric method to study the effects of extreme events on binary outcomes and subsequently forecast future outcomes. Our approach, based on Bayes' theorem and regularly varying (RV) functions, facilitates a…
Recently, the concept of tail dependence has been discussed in financial applications related to market or credit risk. The multivariate extreme value theory is a proper tool to measure and model dependence, for example, of large loss…
This paper proposes an empirical test of financial contagion in European equity markets during the tumultuous period of 2008-2011. Our analysis shows that traditional GARCH and Gaussian stochastic-volatility models are unable to explain two…
In risk management, tail risks are of crucial importance. The quality of a tail model, which is determined by data from an unknown distribution, depends critically on the subset of data used to model the tail. Based on a suitably weighted…