Related papers: A framework for estimating and visualising excess …
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is associated with a very high number of casualties in the general population. Assessing the exact magnitude of this number is a non-trivial problem, as relying only on officially reported COVID-19…
The current outbreak of COVID-19 has called renewed attention to the need for sound statistical analysis for monitoring mortality patterns and trends over time. Excess mortality has been suggested as the most appropriate indicator to…
Quantifying the number of deaths caused by the COVID-19 crisis has been an ongoing challenge for scientists, and no golden standard to do so has yet been established. We propose a principled approach to calculate age-adjusted yearly excess…
Estimating the true mortality burden of COVID-19 for every country in the world is a difficult, but crucial, public health endeavor. Attributing deaths, direct or indirect, to COVID-19 is problematic. A more attainable target is the "excess…
Excess mortality is defined as an increase in the number of deaths above what is expected based on historical trends, hereafter called baseline. In a previous paper, we introduced a statistical method that allows an unbiased and robust…
Factors such as non-uniform definitions of mortality, uncertainty in disease prevalence, and biased sampling complicate the quantification of fatality during an epidemic. Regardless of the employed fatality measure, the infected population…
The study of mortality and the calculation of excess deaths is a fundamental tool for understanding the effect of epidemics / pandemics and the seasonal cycles of endemic / epidemic diseases such as influenza, which is of great importance…
The years 2020 and 2021 were characterized by the COVID-19 pandemic. The true impact of the pandemic on populations' health and life still has to be fully discerned. The main objective of this work is to discern the true impact of COVID-19…
While COVID-19 has resulted in a significant increase in global mortality rates, the impact of the pandemic on mortality from other causes remains uncertain. To gain insight into the broader effects of COVID-19 on various causes of death,…
We present an extension of the Li and Lee model to quantify mortality in five European countries during the COVID-19 pandemic. The first two factors are used to model the pre-COVID mortality, with the first layer modelling the common trend…
When pandemics like COVID-19 spread around the world, the rapidly evolving situation compels officials and executives to take prompt decisions and adapt policies depending on the current state of the disease. In this context, it is crucial…
Several analytical models have been used in this work to describe the evolution of death cases arising from coronavirus (COVID-19). The Death or `D' model is a simplified version of the SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model, which…
The last two centuries have seen a significant increase in life expectancy. Although past trends suggest that mortality will continue to decline in the future, uncertainty and instability about the development is greatly increased due to…
We analyze the data about casualties in Italy in the period 01/01/2015 to 30/09/2020 released by the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT). The data exhibit a clear sinusoidal behavior, whose fit allows for a robust subtraction…
We investigate the possibility of a harvesting effect, i.e. a temporary forward shift in mortality, associated with the COVID-19 pandemic by looking at the excess mortality trends of an area that registered one of the highest death tolls in…
The recent Covid-19 epidemic has lead to comparisons of the countries suffering from it. These are based on the number of excess deaths attributed either directly or indirectly to the epidemic. Unfortunately the data on which such…
Understanding how widely COVID-19 has spread is critical for examining the pandemic's progression. Despite efforts to carefully monitor the pandemic, the number of confirmed cases may underestimate the total number of infections. We…
Excess mortality, i.e. the difference between expected and observed mortality, is used to quantify the death toll of mortality shocks, such as infectious disease-related epidemics and pandemics. However, predictions of expected mortality…
Background: A major question in Covid-19 research is whether democracies handled the Covid-19 pandemic crisis better or worse than authoritarian countries. However, it is important to consider the issues of democracy versus…
Evaluating hospitals' performance and its relation to patients' characteristics is of utmost importance to ensure timely, effective, and optimal treatment. Such a matter is particularly relevant in areas and situations where the healthcare…