Related papers: A framework for estimating and visualising excess …

The Covid-19 pandemic still causes severe impacts on society and the economy. This paper studies excess mortality during the pandemic years 2020 and 2021 in Germany empirically with a special focus on the life insurer's perspective. Our…

COVID-19 has led to excess deaths around the world, however it remains unclear how the mortality of other causes of death has changed during the pandemic. Aiming at understanding the wider impact of COVID-19 on other death causes, we study…

Based on the comprehensive national death registry of Mexico spanning from 1998 to 2022 a point and interval estimation method for the excess mortality in Mexico during the years 2020-2022 is proposed based on illness-induced deaths only,…

Multi-state models provide an extension of the usual survival/event-history analysis setting. In the medical domain, multi-state models give the possibility of further investigating intermediate events such as relapse and remission. In this…

As the COVID-19 outbreak is developing the two most frequently reported statistics seem to be the raw confirmed case and case fatalities counts. Focusing on Italy, one of the hardest hit countries, we look at how these two values could be…

The severe acute respiratory syndrome COVID-19 has been in the center of the ongoing global health crisis in 2020. The high prevalence of mild cases facilitates sub-notification outside hospital environments and the number of those who are…

Objectives. Public health officials need tools to assist with anticipating the healthcare resources required to confront the SARS-COV-2 pandemic. We built a modeling tool to aid practicing public health officials with estimating healthcare…

The COVID-19 pandemic has, worldwide and up to December 2020, caused over 1.7 million deaths, and put the world's most advanced healthcare systems under heavy stress. In many countries, drastic restrictive measures adopted by political…

After COVID-19 was first reported in China at the end of 2019, it took only a few months for this local crisis to turn into a global pandemic with unprecedented disruptions of everyday life. However, at any moment in time the situation in…

Background. The excess mortality rate in Aotearoa New Zealand during the Covid-19 pandemic is frequently estimated to be among the lowest in the world. However, to facilitate international comparisons, many of the methods that have been…

Emerging at the end of 2019, COVID-19 has become a public health threat to people worldwide. Apart from the deaths who tested positive for COVID-19, many others have died from causes indirectly related to COVID-19. Therefore, the COVID-19…

This study investigated the performance, explainability, and robustness of deployed artificial intelligence (AI) models in predicting mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond. The first study of its kind, we found that Bayesian…

We investigate patterns of COVID-19 mortality across 20 Italian regions and their association with mobility, positivity, and socio-demographic, infrastructural and environmental covariates. Notwithstanding limitations in accuracy and…

Small-area mortality estimation is inherently difficult, as random fluctuations from low death counts can obscure real geographic differences. We introduce a flexible model that borrows strength across age, space, and time to estimate…

Official counts of COVID-19 deaths have been criticized for potentially including people who did not die of COVID-19 but merely died with COVID-19. I address that critique by fitting a generalized additive model to weekly counts of all…

The COVID-19 pandemic has placed forecasting models at the forefront of health policy making. Predictions of mortality and hospitalization help governments meet planning and resource allocation challenges. In this paper, we consider the…

This study presents a comprehensive assessment of the Italian risk model used during the COVID-19 pandemic to guide regional mobility restrictions through a colour-coded classification system. The research focuses on evaluating the…

Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, many dashboards have emerged as useful tools to monitor the evolution of the pandemic, inform the public, and assist governments in decision making. Our goal is to develop a globally applicable…

The continuously growing number of COVID-19 cases pressures healthcare services worldwide. Accurate short-term forecasting is thus vital to support country-level policy making. The strategies adopted by countries to combat the pandemic…

Forecasting the effect of COVID-19 is essential to design policies that may prepare us to handle the pandemic. Many methods have already been proposed, particularly, to forecast reported cases and deaths at country-level and state-level.…