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We study multistep Bayesian betting strategies in coin-tossing games in the framework of game-theoretic probability of Shafer and Vovk (2001). We show that by a countable mixture of these strategies, a gambler or an investor can exploit…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2010-08-23 Kei Takeuchi , Masayuki Kumon , Akimichi Takemura

Practical online learning tasks are often naturally defined on unconstrained domains, where optimal algorithms for general convex losses are characterized by the notion of comparator adaptivity. In this paper, we design such algorithms in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-13 Zhiyu Zhang , Ashok Cutkosky , Ioannis Ch. Paschalidis

We consider the adversarial multi-armed bandit problem under delayed feedback. We analyze variants of the Exp3 algorithm that tune their step-size using only information (about the losses and delays) available at the time of the decisions,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-14 András György , Pooria Joulani

We study how to adapt to smoothly-varying ('easy') environments in well-known online learning problems where acquiring information is expensive. For the problem of label efficient prediction, which is a budgeted version of prediction with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-09 Siddharth Mitra , Aditya Gopalan

We propose a two-level, learning-based portfolio method (RL-BHRP) that spreads risk across sectors and stocks, and adjusts exposures as market conditions change. Using U.S. Equities from 2012 to mid-2025, we design the model using 2012 to…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-08-19 Shaofeng Kang , Zeying Tian

The focal point of this paper is the so-called Kelly Criterion, a prescription for optimal resource allocation among a set of gambles which are repeated over time. The criterion calls for maximization of the expected value of the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-10-06 Chung-Han Hsieh , B. Ross Barmish

We study the impact of learning on the optimal policy and the time-to-decision in an infinite-horizon Bayesian sequential decision model with two irreversible alternatives, exit and expansion. In our model, a firm undertakes a small-scale…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-01-15 H. Dharma Kwon , Steven A. Lippman

A key challenge in online learning is that classical algorithms can be slow to adapt to changing environments. Recent studies have proposed "meta" algorithms that convert any online learning algorithm to one that is adaptive to changing…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-11-08 Kwang-Sung Jun , Francesco Orabona , Stephen Wright , Rebecca Willett

We propose an adaptive incentive mechanism that learns the optimal incentives in environments where players continuously update their strategies. Our mechanism updates incentives based on each player's externality, defined as the difference…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2025-03-04 Chinmay Maheshwari , Kshitij Kulkarni , Manxi Wu , Shankar Sastry

The paper presents a machine learning approach to design digital interfaces that can dynamically adapt to different users and usage strategies. The algorithm uses Bayesian statistics to model users' browsing behavior, focusing on their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-24 Eric Petit , Denis Chêne

Most research on adaptive decision-making takes a strategy-first approach, proposing a method of solving a problem and then examining whether it can be implemented in the brain and in what environments it succeeds. We present a method for…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2015-09-21 Peter Kvam , Joseph Cesario , Jory Schossau , Heather Eisthen , Arend Hintze

Adaptive social learning is a useful tool for studying distributed decision-making problems over graphs. This paper investigates the effect of combination policies on the performance of adaptive social learning strategies. Using…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-06-01 Ping Hu , Virginia Bordignon , Stefan Vlaski , Ali H. Sayed

This work carries out a detailed transient analysis of the learning behavior of multi-agent networks, and reveals interesting results about the learning abilities of distributed strategies. Among other results, the analysis reveals how…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2015-04-21 Jianshu Chen , Ali H. Sayed

We consider model selection in stochastic bandit and reinforcement learning problems. Given a set of base learning algorithms, an effective model selection strategy adapts to the best learning algorithm in an online fashion. We show that by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-11 Yasin Abbasi-Yadkori , Aldo Pacchiano , My Phan

We study a multi-agent decision problem in population games, where agents select from multiple available strategies and continually revise their selections based on the payoffs associated with these strategies. Unlike conventional…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2024-09-17 Shinkyu Park

We consider the problem of online linear regression on individual sequences. The goal in this paper is for the forecaster to output sequential predictions which are, after $T$ time rounds, almost as good as the ones output by the best…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-01-17 Sébastien Gerchinovitz , Jia Yuan Yu

We study bandit learning in matching markets, where players and arms constitute the two market sides, and the players' utilities are linear in the arm contexts. In each round, new arms arrive with observable contexts. Then, the algorithm…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-28 Shiyun Lin , Simon Mauras , Vianney Perchet , Nadav Merlis

We investigate the frequentist properties of Bayesian procedures for estimation based on the horseshoe prior in the sparse multivariate normal means model. Previous theoretical results assumed that the sparsity level, that is, the number of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-02-14 Stéphanie van der Pas , Botond Szabó , Aad van der Vaart

The tendency of repeating past choices more often than expected from the history of outcomes has been repeatedly empirically observed in reinforcement learning experiments. It can be explained by at least two computational processes:…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2024-10-28 Isabelle Hoxha , Leo Sperber , Stefano Palminteri

We present a simple game which mimics the complex dynamics found in most natural and social systems. Intelligent players modify their strategies periodically, depending on their performances. We propose that the agents use hybridized…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-07 Marko Sysi-Aho , Anirban Chakraborti , Kimmo Kaski
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