Related papers: Adaptive strategy in Kelly's horse races model

The article is devoted to investigating the application of hedging strategies to online expert weight allocation under delayed feedback. As the main result, we develop the General Hedging algorithm $\mathcal{G}$ based on the exponential…

We propose a general framework for studying adaptive regret bounds in the online learning framework, including model selection bounds and data-dependent bounds. Given a data- or model-dependent bound we ask, "Does there exist some algorithm…

In Keynesian Beauty Contests notably modeled by p-guessing games, players try to guess the average of guesses multiplied by p. Convergence of plays to Nash equilibrium has often been justified by agents' learning. However, interrogations…

We study a simple adaptive model in the framework of an N -player normal form game. The model consists of a repeated game where the players only know their own action space and their own payoff scored at each stage, not those of the other…

We propose a prediction model based on the minority game in which traders continuously evaluate a complete set of trading strategies with different memory lengths using the strategies' past performance. Based on the chosen trading strategy…

We present an adaptive approach to the construction of Gaussian process surrogates for Bayesian inference with expensive-to-evaluate forward models. Our method relies on the fully Bayesian approach to training Gaussian process models and…

The multi-armed bandit is a concise model for the problem of iterated decision-making under uncertainty. In each round, a gambler must pull one of $K$ arms of a slot machine, without any foreknowledge of their payouts, except that they are…

We develop an approach to efficiently grow neural networks, within which parameterization and optimization strategies are designed by considering their effects on the training dynamics. Unlike existing growing methods, which follow simple…

We study learning dynamics induced by strategic agents who repeatedly play a game with an unknown payoff-relevant parameter. In this dynamics, a belief estimate of the parameter is repeatedly updated given players' strategies and realized…

We study Bayesian learning in episodic, finite-horizon zero-sum Markov games with unknown transition and reward models. We investigate a posterior algorithm in which each player maintains a Bayesian posterior over the game model,…

We study the problem of estimating from data, a sparse approximation to the inverse covariance matrix. Estimating a sparsity constrained inverse covariance matrix is a key component in Gaussian graphical model learning, but one that is…

The original Kelly criterion provides a strategy to maximize the long-term growth of winnings in a sequence of simple Bernoulli bets with an edge, that is, when the expected return on each bet is positive. The objective of this work is to…

We study a variant of prediction with expert advice where the learner's action at round $t$ is only allowed to depend on losses on a specific subset of the rounds (where the structure of which rounds' losses are visible at time $t$ is…

We deal with the \textit{selective classification} problem (supervised-learning problem with a rejection option), where we want to achieve the best performance at a certain level of coverage of the data. We transform the original $m$-class…

We provide a natural learning process in which a financial trader without a risk receives a gain in case when Stock Market is inefficient. In this process, the trader rationally choose his gambles using a prediction made by a randomized…

We propose the Bayesian adaptive Lasso (BaLasso) for variable selection and coefficient estimation in linear regression. The BaLasso is adaptive to the signal level by adopting different shrinkage for different coefficients. Furthermore, we…

We propose EAGLE update rule, a novel optimization method that accelerates loss convergence during the early stages of training by leveraging both current and previous step parameter and gradient values. The update algorithm estimates…

There is increasing interest in learning how human brain networks vary as a function of a continuous trait, but flexible and efficient procedures to accomplish this goal are limited. We develop a Bayesian semiparametric model, which…

This work proposes a novel strategy for social learning by introducing the critical feature of adaptation. In social learning, several distributed agents update continually their belief about a phenomenon of interest through: i) direct…

We study repeated two-player games where one of the players, the learner, employs a no-regret learning strategy, while the other, the optimizer, is a rational utility maximizer. We consider general Bayesian games, where the payoffs of both…