Related papers: Adaptive strategy in Kelly's horse races model

Language models have shown unprecedented capabilities, sparking debate over the source of their performance. Is it merely the outcome of learning syntactic patterns and surface level statistics, or do they extract semantics and a world…

Kelly criterion, that maximizes the expectation value of the logarithm of wealth for bookmaker bets, gives an advantage over different class of strategies. We use projective symmetries for a explanation of this fact. Kelly's approach allows…

We apply control theoretic and optimization techniques to adaptively design incentives. In particular, we consider the problem of a planner with an objective that depends on data from strategic decision makers. The planner does not know the…

Poker is a challenging problem for artificial intelligence, with non-deterministic dynamics, partial observability, and the added difficulty of unknown adversaries. Modelling all of the uncertainties in this domain is not an easy task. In…

We consider the problem of constructing an adaptive bridge regression modeling, which is a penalized procedure by imposing different weights to different coefficients in the bridge penalty term. A crucial issue in the modeling process is…

Many algorithms and applications involve repeatedly solving variations of the same inference problem; for example we may want to introduce new evidence to the model or perform updates to conditional dependencies. The goal of adaptive…

Financial markets are complex environments that produce enormous amounts of noisy and non-stationary data. One fundamental problem is online portfolio selection, the goal of which is to exploit this data to sequentially select portfolios of…

In an information-processing investment game, such as the growth of a population of organisms in a changing environment, Kelly betting maximizes the expected log rate of growth. In this paper, we show that Kelly bets are closely related to…

We study the limiting behavior of the mixed strategies that result from optimal no-regret learning strategies in a repeated game setting where the stage game is any 2 by 2 competitive game. We consider optimal no-regret algorithms that are…

We present a powerful general framework for designing data-dependent optimization algorithms, building upon and unifying recent techniques in adaptive regularization, optimistic gradient predictions, and problem-dependent randomization. We…

Prompted by a recent experiment by Victor Haghani and Richard Dewey, this note generalises the Kelly strategy (optimal for simple investment games with log utility) to a large class of practical utility functions and including the effect of…

This paper examines the convergence of no-regret learning in games with continuous action sets. For concreteness, we focus on learning via "dual averaging", a widely used class of no-regret learning schemes where players take small steps…

Parametric portfolio policies may experience estimation risk. I develop a generalized Bayesian framework that updates priors, delivering a posterior distribution over characteristic tilts and out-of-sample returns that is the unique…

Imitation learning enables autonomous agents to learn from human examples, without the need for a reward signal. Still, if the provided dataset does not encapsulate the task correctly, or when the task is too complex to be modeled, such…

Recently, there has been rising interest in Bayesian optimization -- the optimization of an unknown function with assumptions usually expressed by a Gaussian Process (GP) prior. We study an optimization strategy that directly uses an…

We introduce an online learning algorithm for computing adaptive resource allocation policies against strategic ecological adversaries with unknown behavioral models and partial observability. Our setting addresses a fundamental limitation…

In this work, we aim to create a completely online algorithmic framework for prediction with expert advice that is translation-free and scale-free of the expert losses. Our goal is to create a generalized algorithm that is suitable for use…

We introduce algorithms for online, full-information prediction that are competitive with contextual tree experts of unknown complexity, in both probabilistic and adversarial settings. We show that by incorporating a probabilistic framework…

We exhibit optimal control strategies for a simple toy problem in which the underlying dynamics depend on a parameter that is initially unknown and must be learned. We consider a cost function posed over a finite time interval, in contrast…

The learning rate is a crucial hyperparameter in deep learning, with its ideal value depending on the problem and potentially changing during training. In this paper, we investigate the practical utility of adaptive learning rate mechanisms…