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Model selection is crucial to high-dimensional learning and inference for contemporary big data applications in pinpointing the best set of covariates among a sequence of candidate interpretable models. Most existing work assumes implicitly…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-03-21 Emre Demirkaya , Yang Feng , Pallavi Basu , Jinchi Lv

Probabilistic programming methods have revolutionised Bayesian inference, making it easier than ever for practitioners to perform Markov-chain-Monte-Carlo sampling from non-conjugate posterior distributions. Here we focus on Stan, arguably…

Computation · Statistics 2025-02-10 Clemens Pichler , Jack Jewson , Alejandra Avalos-Pacheco

Gaussian process (GP) is a Bayesian model which provides several advantages for regression tasks in machine learning such as reliable quantitation of uncertainty and improved interpretability. Their adoption has been precluded by their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-26 Jonathan Parkinson , Wei Wang

Despite exceptional predictive performance of Deep sequence models (DSMs), the main concern of their deployment centers around the lack of uncertainty awareness. In contrast, probabilistic models quantify the uncertainty associated with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Wenlong Chen

Acquiring a substantial number of data points for training accurate machine learning (ML) models is a big challenge in scientific fields where data collection is resource-intensive. Here, we propose a novel approach for constructing a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-07 M. R. Mahani , Igor A. Nechepurenko , Yasmin Rahimof , Andreas Wicht

Utilizing Bayesian methods in clinical trials has become increasingly popular, as they can incorporate historical data and expert opinions into the design and allow for smaller sample sizes to reduce costs while providing reliable and…

Due to the ease of modern data collection, applied statisticians often have access to a large set of covariates that they wish to relate to some observed outcome. Generalized linear models (GLMs) offer a particularly interpretable framework…

Computation · Statistics 2019-05-21 Brian L. Trippe , Jonathan H. Huggins , Raj Agrawal , Tamara Broderick

We investigate cosmological parameter inference and model selection from a Bayesian perspective. Type Ia supernova data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES-SN5YR) are used to test the $\Lambda$CDM, $w$CDM, and CPL cosmological models.…

Applications · Statistics 2025-12-12 Nikoloz Gigiberia

The ongoing replication crisis in science has increased interest in the methodology of replication studies. We propose a novel Bayesian analysis approach using power priors: The likelihood of the original study's data is raised to the power…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-28 Samuel Pawel , Frederik Aust , Leonhard Held , Eric-Jan Wagenmakers

Probit unfolding models (PUMs) are a novel class of scaling models that allow for items with both monotonic and non-monotonic response functions and have shown great promise in the estimation of preferences from voting data in various…

Computation · Statistics 2025-04-02 Skylar Shi , Abel Rodriguez , Rayleigh Lei

A fully Bayesian approach is proposed for ultrahigh-dimensional nonparametric additive models in which the number of additive components may be larger than the sample size, though ideally the true model is believed to include only a small…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-09-24 Zuofeng Shang , Ping Li

Large pretrained transformer models have revolutionized modern AI applications with their state-of-the-art performance in natural language processing (NLP). However, their substantial parameter count poses challenges for real-world…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-05 Mingxuan Zhang , Yan Sun , Faming Liang

The Zellner's g-prior and its recent hierarchical extensions are the most popular default prior choices in the Bayesian variable selection context. These prior set-ups can be expressed power-priors with fixed set of imaginary data. In this…

Computation · Statistics 2013-07-10 Dimitris Fouskakis , Ioannis Ntzoufras

varstan is an \proglang{R} package for Bayesian analysis of time series models using \proglang{Stan}. The package offers a dynamic way to choose a model, define priors in a wide range of distributions, check model's fit, and forecast with…

Computation · Statistics 2020-05-22 Izhar Asael Alonzo Matamoros , Cristian Andres Cruz Torres

Classification is a fundamental task in supervised learning, while achieving valid misclassification rate control remains challenging due to possibly the limited predictive capability of the classifiers or the intrinsic complexity of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-16 Yinrui Sun , Yin Xia

In high-dimensional Bayesian statistics, various methods have been developed, including prior distributions that induce parameter sparsity to handle many parameters. Yet, these approaches often overlook the rich spectral structure of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-05-06 Tomoya Wakayama , Masaaki Imaizumi

Bayesian methods and their implementations by means of sophisticated Monte Carlo techniques, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and particle filters, have become very popular in signal processing over the last years. However, in many…

Computation · Statistics 2012-05-29 Luca Martino , Joaquin Miguez

The advent of Generative Artificial Intelligence (GAI) has heralded an inflection point that changed how society thinks about knowledge acquisition. While GAI cannot be fully trusted for decision-making, it may still provide valuable…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-20 Sean O'Hagan , Veronika Ročková

Bayesian learning using Gaussian processes provides a foundational framework for making decisions in a manner that balances what is known with what could be learned by gathering data. In this dissertation, we develop techniques for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-04-29 Alexander Terenin

Purpose: Machine learning is broadly used for clinical data analysis. Before training a model, a machine learning algorithm must be selected. Also, the values of one or more model parameters termed hyper-parameters must be set. Selecting…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-12-10 Xueqiang Zeng , Gang Luo