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We use a decision-theoretic framework to study the problem of forecasting discrete outcomes when the forecaster is unable to discriminate among a set of plausible forecast distributions because of partial identification or concerns about…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-12-18 Timothy Christensen , Hyungsik Roger Moon , Frank Schorfheide

We consider a discrete model of population with interaction where the birth and death rates are non linear functions of the population size. After proceeding to renormalization of the model parameters, we obtain in the limit of large…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-11-11 Mamadou Ba , Etienne Pardoux

Reaction-diffusion models are often used to describe biological invasion, where populations of individuals that undergo random motility and proliferation lead to moving fronts. Many models of biological invasion are extensions of the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-01-09 Matthew J Simpson , Nizhum Rahman , Alexander KY Tam

The transition from a microscopic model for the movement of many particles to a macroscopic continuum model for a density flow is studied. The microscopic model for the free flow is completely deterministic, described by an interaction…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-01-12 Jennifer Weissen , Simone Göttlich , Dieter Armbruster

In this article, we analyse the non-local model : $\partial$ t U (t, x) = J $\star$ U (t, x) -- U (t, x) + f (x -- ct, U (t, x)) for t > 0, and x $\in$ R, where J is a positive continuous dispersal kernel and f (x, s) is a heterogeneous KPP…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2020-12-18 Jérôme Coville

We consider the well-posedness of models involving age structure and non-linear diffusion. Such problems arise in the study of population dynamics. It is shown how diffusion and age boundary conditions can be treated that depend…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2008-10-31 Christoph Walker

We introduce the following model for the evolution of a population. At every discrete time $j\geq 0$ exactly one individual is introduced in the population and is assigned a death probability $c_j$ sampled from $C$, a fixed probability…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-07-20 Luiz Renato Fontes , Fabio P. Machado , Rinaldo B. Schinazi

Reaction-diffusion equations are widely used as the governing evolution equations for modeling many physical, chemical, and biological processes. Here we derive reaction-diffusion equations to model transport with reactions on a…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-09-16 E. Abad , C. N. Angstmann , B. I. Henry , A. V. McGann , F. Le Vot , S. B. Yuste

Mathematical models of motility are often based on random-walk descriptions of discrete individuals that can move according to certain rules. It is usually the case that large masses concentrated in small regions of space have a great…

Physics and Society · Physics 2022-11-23 Carles Falcó

This paper deals with extinction of an isolated population caused by intrinsic noise. We model the population dynamics in a "refuge" as a Markov process which involves births and deaths on discrete lattice sites and random migrations…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-05-19 Baruch Meerson , Pavel V. Sasorov

Populations evolving under the joint influence of recombination and resampling (traditionally known as genetic drift) are investigated. First, we summarise and adapt a deterministic approach, as valid for infinite populations, which assumes…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2009-02-20 Ellen Baake , Inke Herms

We prove the existence of solutions of a cross-diffusion parabolic population problem. The system of partial differential equations is deduced as the limit equations satisfied by the densities corresponding to an interacting particles…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2024-01-29 Gonzalo Galiano , Virginia Selgas

Environmental fluctuations can create population-depleted areas and even extinct areas for the population. This effect is more severe in the presence of the Allee effect (decreasing growth rate at low population densities). Dispersal inside…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2022-02-23 Rodrigo Crespo-Miguel , Javier Jarillo , Francisco J. Cao-García

We study a system of reaction-diffusion equations posed on a bounded domain composed of subdomains separated by a connected network with a metric graph structure. The reaction-diffusion dynamics with anisotropic diffusion on the graph edges…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2025-10-28 Xiao Meng , Kei Fong Lam

In numerous papers, the behaviour of stochastic population models is investigated through the sign of a real quantity which is the growth rate of the population near the extinction set. In many cases, it is proven that when this growth rate…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-01-06 Dang H. Nguyen , Edouard Strickler

Starting from the well-known field theory for directed percolation, we describe an evolving population, near extinction, in an environment with its own nontrivial spatio-temporal dynamics. Here, we consider the special case where the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-13 Sayak Mukherjee , H. K. Janssen , B. Schmittmann

We propose a phenomenological non-equilibrium framework for modelling the evolution of cities which describes the intra-urban resettlement as an irreversible diffusive process. We validate this framework using the actual migration data for…

Physics and Society · Physics 2021-01-12 Bohdan Slavko , Mikhail Prokopenko , Kirill S. Glavatskiy

We study a class of branching processes in which the offspring distribution is not specified directly but is induced by a cycle of internal colony growth, catastrophic reduction and structured dispersal. The parameters governing growth,…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-07 Lucas R. de Lima , Fábio P. Machado

This short paper concerns a diffusive logistic equation with the heterogeneous environment and a free boundary, which is formulated to study the spread of an invasive species, where the free boundary represents the expanding front. A…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2014-06-25 Mingxin Wang

We show how highly-diverse ecological communities may display persistent abundance fluctuations, when interacting through resource competition and subjected to migration from a species pool. This turns out to be closely related to the ratio…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-02-12 Itay Dalmedigos , Guy Bunin