Related papers: Rainbow Options under Bayesian MS-VAR Process

We use Bayesian model selection paradigms, such as group least absolute shrinkage and selection operator priors, to facilitate generalized additive model selection. Our approach allows for the effects of continuous predictors to be…

Variational Bayesian (VB) methods produce posterior inference in a time frame considerably smaller than traditional Markov Chain Monte Carlo approaches. Although the VB posterior is an approximation, it has been shown to produce good…

This paper discusses the efficient Bayesian estimation of a multivariate factor stochastic volatility (Factor MSV) model with leverage. We propose a novel approach to construct the sampling schemes that converges to the posterior…

In the classical model of stock prices which is assumed to be Geometric Brownian motion, the drift and the volatility of the prices are held constant. However, in reality, the volatility does vary. In quantitative finance, the Heston model…

In the current literature, the analytical tractability of discrete time option pricing models is guaranteed only for rather specific types of models and pricing kernels. We propose a very general and fully analytical option pricing…

We propose a structural vector autoregressive model with a new and flexible specification of the volatility process which we call Sparse Heterogeneous Markov-Switching Heteroskedasticity. In this model, the conditional variance of each…

This paper presents a framework of imitating the principal investor's behavior for optimal pricing and hedging options. We construct a non-deterministic Markov decision process for modeling stock price change driven by the principal…

In the present work, we consider variable selection and shrinkage for the Gaussian dynamic linear regression within a Bayesian framework. In particular, we propose a novel method that allows for time-varying sparsity, based on an extension…

We present the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) in the context of Markov chains and Markov decision processes with reachability and mean-payoff objectives. CVaR quantifies risk by means of the expectation of the worst p-quantile. As such it…

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We propose the Bayesian adaptive Lasso (BaLasso) for variable selection and coefficient estimation in linear regression. The BaLasso is adaptive to the signal level by adopting different shrinkage for different coefficients. Furthermore, we…

In this paper, we introduce a new kind of reflected backward stochastic differential equations (RBSDEs) driven by a martingale, in a Markov chain model, but not driven by Brownian motion, and give existence and uniqueness results for the…

The aim of this study is to devise numerical methods for dealing with very high-dimensional Bermudan-style derivatives. For such problems, we quickly see that we can at best hope for price bounds, and we can only use a simulation approach.…

This article introduces a novel dynamic framework to Bayesian model averaging for time-varying parameter quantile regressions. By employing sequential Markov chain Monte Carlo, we combine empirical estimates derived from dynamically chosen…

Bayesian variable selection is a powerful tool for data analysis, as it offers a principled method for variable selection that accounts for prior information and uncertainty. However, wider adoption of Bayesian variable selection has been…

Weconsider Markov decision processes arising from a Markov model of an underlying natural phenomenon. Such phenomena are usually periodic (e.g. annual) in time, and so the Markov processes modelling them must be time-inhomogeneous, with…

We propose a novel Bayesian approach to the problem of variable selection in multiple linear regression models. In particular, we present a hierarchical setting which allows for direct specification of a-priori beliefs about the number of…

We consider the problem of finding a large rainbow matching in a random graph with randomly colored edges. In particular we analyze the performance of two greedy algorithms for this problem. The algorithms we study are colored versions of…

The purpose of this work is to explore the role that arbitrage opportunities play in pricing financial derivatives. We use a non-equilibrium model to set up a stochastic portfolio, and for the random arbitrage return, we choose a stationary…

The purpose of this paper is to propose a time-varying vector autoregressive model (TV-VAR) for forecasting multivariate time series. The model is casted into a state-space form that allows flexible description and analysis. The volatility…