Related papers: Rainbow Options under Bayesian MS-VAR Process
We focus on mean-variance hedging problem for models whose asset price follows an exponential additive process. Some representations of mean-variance hedging strategies for jump type models have already been suggested, but none is suited to…
We consider the problem of flexible modeling of higher order Markov chains when an upper bound on the order of the chain is known but the true order and nature of the serial dependence are unknown. We propose Bayesian nonparametric…
In this article, we propose new Bayesian methods for selecting and estimating a sparse coefficient vector for skewed heteroscedastic response. Our novel Bayesian procedures effectively estimate the median and other quantile functions,…
We study control variate methods for Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) in the setting of deterministic sweep sampling using $K\geq 2$ transition kernels. New variance reduction results are provided for MCMC averages based on sweeps over…
Switching dynamical systems provide a powerful, interpretable modeling framework for inference in time-series data in, e.g., the natural sciences or engineering applications. Since many areas, such as biology or discrete-event systems, are…
We present a flexible Bayesian semiparametric mixed model for longitudinal data analysis in the presence of potentially high-dimensional categorical covariates. Building on a novel hidden Markov tensor decomposition technique, our proposed…
We aim at studying approximate null-controllability properties of a particular class of piecewise linear Markov processes (Markovian switch systems). The criteria are given in terms of algebraic invariance and are easily computable. We…
We address the problem of inverse reinforcement learning in Markov decision processes where the agent is risk-sensitive. In particular, we model risk-sensitivity in a reinforcement learning framework by making use of models of human…
Regime detection is vital for the effective operation of trading and investment strategies. However, the most popular means of doing this, the two-state Markov-switching regression model (MSR), is not an optimal solution, as two volatility…
Hawkes processes are often applied to model dependence and interaction phenomena in multivariate event data sets, such as neuronal spike trains, social interactions, and financial transactions. In the nonparametric setting, learning the…
We present a general variational approach to determine the steady state of open quantum lattice systems via a neural network approach. The steady-state density matrix of the lattice system is constructed via a purified neural network ansatz…
We solve the problem of mean-variance hedging for general semimartingale models via stochastic control methods. After proving that the value process of the associated stochastic control problem has a quadratic structure, we characterize its…
Variational Bayes (VB) is a recent approximate method for Bayesian inference. It has the merit of being a fast and scalable alternative to Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) but its approximation error is often unknown. In this paper, we…
We study a linear recursion with random Markov-dependent coefficients. In a "regular variation in, regular variation out" setup we show that its stationary solution has a multivariate regularly varying distribution. This extends results…
Introduced in the late 90s, the passport option gives its holder the right to trade in a market and receive any positive gain in the resulting traded account at maturity. Pricing the option amounts to solving a stochastic control problem…
We formulate option market making as a constrained, risk-sensitive control problem that unifies execution, hedging, and arbitrage-free implied-volatility surfaces inside a single learning loop. A fully differentiable eSSVI layer enforces…
In this paper we model basketball plays as episodes from team-specific non-stationary Markov decision processes (MDPs) with shot clock dependent transition probabilities. Bayesian hierarchical models are employed in the modeling and…
We consider a stationary Markov process that models certain queues with a bulk service of a fixed number $m$ of admitted customers. We find an integral expression of its transition probability function in terms of certain multi-orthogonal…
Markov automata combine non-determinism, probabilistic branching, and exponentially distributed delays. This compositional variant of continuous-time Markov decision processes is used in reliability engineering, performance evaluation and…
In this paper we complete and extend our previous work on stochastic control applied to high frequency market-making with inventory constraints and directional bets. Our new model admits several state variables (e.g. market spread,…