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This study assesses the impact of COVID-19 vaccines through an epidemiological model that quantifies their role in pandemic control. We analyze an SIR-based model incorporating vaccination effects and calculate the basic reproduction…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-07-29 Tesfalem Abate Tegegn , Yibeltal Adane Terefe

I propose novel partial identification bounds on infection prevalence from information on test rate and test yield. The approach utilizes user-specified bounds on (i) test accuracy and (ii) the extent to which tests are targeted, formalized…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-07-03 Jörg Stoye

The novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has led to a pandemic. The current testing regime based on Reverse Transcription-Polymerase Chain Reaction for SARS-CoV-2 has been unable to keep up with testing demands, and also suffers from a relatively…

For countries starting to receive steady supplies of vaccines against SARS-CoV-2, the course of Covid-19 for the following months will be determined by the emergence of new variants and successful roll-out of vaccination campaigns. To…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-09-27 Yury E. García , Gustavo Mery , Paola Vásquez , Juan G. Calvo , Luis A. Barboza , Tania Rivas , Fabio Sanchez

The Omicron variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has rapidly replaced the Delta variant as a dominating SARS-CoV-2 variant because of natural selection, which favors the variant with higher infectivity and…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2022-02-11 Jiahui Chen , Guo-Wei Wei

With the approval of vaccines for the coronavirus disease by many countries worldwide, most developed nations have begun, and developing nations are gearing up for the vaccination process. This has created an urgent need to provide a…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2021-02-09 Mahzabeen Emu , Dhivya Chandrasekaran , Vijay Mago , Salimur Choudhury

The number of corona virus (COVID-19) infections grows worldwide. In order to create short term predictions to prepare for the extent of the global pandemic we analyze infection data from the top 25 affected countries. It is shown that all…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-03-27 H. M. Singer

The recent coronavirus pandemic follows in its early stages an almost exponential growth, with the number of cases quite well fit in time by $N(t)\propto e^{\alpha t}$, in many countries. We analyze the rate $\alpha$ for each country,…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-12-22 Alessio Notari

We analyze the effect of using a screening CT-scan for evaluation of potential COVID-19 infections in order to isolate and perform contact tracing based upon a viral pneumonia diagnosis. RT-PCR is then used for continued isolation based…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-06-04 Chen Shen , Ron Mark , Nolan J. Kagetsu , Anton S. Becker , Yaneer Bar-Yam

This study aims to statistically assess the effectiveness of vaccination against SARS-CoV-2. It is indispensable to investigate the relationship between Covid-19 deadliness and vaccination in order to study the impact of vaccine in…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2022-02-04 MD. Rayhan , M. Abdullah-Al-Wadud , M. Helal Uddin Ahmed

In this study, we investigate the scientific research response from the early stages of the pandemic, and we review key findings on how the early warning systems developed in previous epidemics responded to contain the virus. The data…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2020-09-15 Petar Radanliev , David De Roure , Rob Walton

The COVID-19 pandemic has influenced the lives of people globally. In the past year many researchers have proposed different models and approaches to explore in what ways the spread of the disease could be mitigated. One of the models that…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-06-17 Aram Ansary Ogholbake , Hana Khamfroush

We used a spatially explicit agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission combined with spatially fine-grained COVID-19 observation data from Public Health Scotland to investigate the initial rise of the Omicron (BA.1) variant of concern.…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-12-02 Christopher J. Banks , Ewan Colman , Anthony Wood , Thomas Doherty , Rowland R. Kao

We model further development of the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK given the current data and assuming different scenarios of handling the epidemic. In this research, we further extend the stochastic model suggested in \cite{us} and…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-04-10 Anatoly Zhigljavsky , Roger Whitaker , Ivan Fesenko , Kobi Kremnizer , Jack Noonan

In this paper, we study the trending behaviour of COVID-19 data at country level, and draw attention to some existing econometric tools which are potentially helpful to understand the trend better in future studies. In our empirical study,…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-06-25 Chaohua Dong , Jiti Gao , Oliver Linton , Bin Peng

Considering the global pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), around the world several vaccines are being developed. Till now, these vaccines are the most effective way to reduce the high burden on the global health…

Physics and Society · Physics 2023-02-22 Dibyajyoti Mallick , Aniruddha Ray , Ankita Das , Sayantari Ghosh

Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) has drastically overwhelmed more than 200 countries affecting millions and claiming almost 1 million lives, since its emergence in late 2019. This highly contagious disease can easily spread, and if not…

It is crucial for policymakers to understand the community prevalence of COVID-19 so combative resources can be effectively allocated and prioritized during the COVID-19 pandemic. Traditionally, community prevalence has been assessed…

We investigate the distribution of numbers of secondary cases in households in the Office for National Statistics COVID-19 Infection Survey (ONS CIS), stratified by timing of vaccination and infection in the households. This shows a total…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-07-15 Thomas House , Lorenzo Pellis , Emma Pritchard , Angela R. McLean , A. Sarah Walker

Based on the information communicated in press releases, and finally published towards the end of 2020 by Pfizer, Moderna and AstraZeneca, we have built up a simple Bayesian model, in which the main quantity of interest plays the role of…

Applications · Statistics 2021-09-07 Giulio D'Agostini , Alfredo Esposito