We analyze the effect of using a screening CT-scan for evaluation of potential COVID-19 infections in order to isolate and perform contact tracing based upon a viral pneumonia diagnosis. RT-PCR is then used for continued isolation based upon a COVID diagnosis. Both the low false negative rates and rapid results of CT-scans lead to dramatically reduced transmission. The reduction in cases after 60 days with widespread use of CT-scan screening compared to PCR by itself is as high as 50×, and the reduction of effective reproduction rate R(t) is 0.20. Our results imply that much more rapid extinction of COVID is possible by combining social distancing with CT-scans and contact tracing.
Cite
@article{arxiv.2006.02140,
title = {Combining PCR and CT testing for COVID},
author = {Chen Shen and Ron Mark and Nolan J. Kagetsu and Anton S. Becker and Yaneer Bar-Yam},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2006.02140},
year = {2020}
}