Related papers: A New Rapid Test to End COVID
The cumulative number of confirmed infected individuals by the new coronavirus outbreak until April 30th, 2020, is presented for the countries: Belgium, Brazil, United Kingdom (UK), and United States of America (USA). After an initial…
A reasonable prediction of infectious diseases transmission process under different disease control strategies is an important reference point for policy makers. Here we established a dynamic transmission model via Python and realized…
A target to eliminate Human Immuno-deficiency Virus (HIV) transmission in England by 2030 was set in early 2019. Estimates of recent trends in HIV prevalence, particularly the number of people living with undiagnosed HIV, by exposure group,…
Emerging epidemics and local infection clusters are initially prone to stochastic effects that can substantially impact the epidemic trajectory. While numerous studies are devoted to the deterministic regime of an established epidemic,…
We find UK 'local lockdowns' of cities and small regions, focused on limiting how many people a household can interact with and in what settings, are effective in turning the tide on rising positive COVID-19 cases. Yet, by focusing on…
Motivated by massive outbreaks of COVID-19 that occurred even in populations with high vaccine uptake, we propose a novel multi-population temporal network model for the spread of recurrent epidemic diseases. We study the effect of human…
The outbreak of COVID-19 since Dec. 2019 has caused severe life and economic damage worldwide, many countries are trapped by medical resource constraints or absence of targeted therapeutics, and therefore the implement of systemic policies…
The advent of the COVID-19 pandemic has instigated unprecedented changes in many countries around the globe, putting a significant burden on the health sectors, affecting the macro economic conditions, and altering social interactions…
Prominently accountable for the upsurge of COVID-19 cases as the world attempts to recover from the previous two waves, Omicron has further threatened the conventional therapeutic approaches. Omicron is the fifth variant of concern (VOC),…
Mass antigen testing has been proposed as a possible cost-effective tool to contain the Covid-19 pandemic. We test the impact of a voluntary mass testing campaign implemented in the Italian region of South Tyrol on the spread of the virus…
I critique a recent analysis (Miles, Stedman & Heald, 2020) of COVID-19 lockdown costs and benefits, focussing on the United Kingdom (UK). Miles et al. (2020) argue that the March-June UK lockdown was more costly than the benefit of lives…
The number of new infections per day is a key quantity for effective epidemic management. It can be estimated relatively directly by testing of random population samples. Without such direct epidemiological measurement, other approaches are…
I use a very simple deterministic model for the spread of Covid-19 in a large population. Using this to compare the relative decay of the number of deaths per day between different regions in Italy, Spain and England, each applying in…
Vaccines are among the most powerful tools used to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. They are highly effective against infection and substantially reduce the risk of severe disease, hospitalization, ICU admission, and death. However, their…
Purpose: Only few companies were able to produce vaccine again COVID-19. Thus, one producer supplied it to many countries. The distribution was not effective. Some countries overstocked the vaccine while other countries were not able to buy…
COVID-19 has resulted in over 100 million infections and caused worldwide lock downs due to its high transmission rate and limited testing options. Current diagnostic tests can be expensive, limited in availability, time-intensive and…
Inspired by applications in testing for Covid-19, we consider a variant of two-stage group testing called "conservative" (or "trivial") two-stage testing, where every item declared to be defective must be definitively confirmed by being…
Vaccination against the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a key measure to reduce the probability of getting infected with the disease. Accordingly, this might significantly change an individuals perception and decision-making in daily…
The introduction of the rotavirus vaccine in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2013 led to a noticeable decline in laboratory reports in subsequent years. To assess the impact of vaccination on rotavirus transmissibility we calibrated a stochastic…
The world is suffering from a pandemic called COVID-19, caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. National governments have problems evaluating the reach of the epidemic, due to having limited resources and tests at their disposal. This problem is…