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It has long been known that epidemics can travel along communication lines, such as roads. In the current COVID-19 epidemic, it has been observed that major roads have enhanced its propagation in Italy. We propose a new simple model of…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2020-11-16 Henri Berestycki , Jean-Michel Roquejoffre , Luca Rossi

A stochastic SIR (susceptible $\to$ infective $\to$ recovered) epidemic model defined on a social network is analysed. The underlying social network is described by an Erd\H{o}s-R\'{e}nyi random graph but, during the course of the epidemic,…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-08-17 Frank Ball , Tom Britton

How to prevent the spread of human diseases is a great challenge for the scientific community and so far there are many studies in which immunization strategies have been developed. However, these kind of strategies usually do not consider…

Physics and Society · Physics 2018-08-22 M. A. Di Muro , L. G. Alvarez-Zuzek , S. Havlin , L. A. Braunstein

We study a discrete Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model for the spread of infectious disease on a homogeneous tree and the limit behavior of the model in the case when the tree vertex degree tends to infinity. We obtain the…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-07-08 Alexander Gairat , Vadim Shcherbakov

The spread of an epidemic process is considered in the context of a spatial SIR stochastic model that includes a parameter $0\le p\le 1$ that assigns weights $p$ and $1- p$ to global and local infective contacts respectively. The model was…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-01-29 Gabriel Fabricius , Alberto Maltz

We study the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) epidemic on a random graph chosen uniformly over all graphs with certain critical, heavy-tailed degree distributions. For this model, each vertex infects all its susceptible neighbors and…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-05-14 David Clancy

We model an epidemic where the per-person infectiousness in a network of geographic localities changes with the total number of active cases. This would happen as people adopt more stringent non-pharmaceutical precautions when the…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2021-12-07 Akhil Bhimaraju , Avhishek Chatterjee , Lav R. Varshney

We discuss the criticality in the stochastic SIR model for infectious diseases. We adopt the path-integral formalism for the propagation of infections among susceptible, infectious, and removed individuals, and perform the perturbative and…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2022-02-14 Shigehiro Yasui , Yutaka Hatakeyama , Yoshiyasu Okuhara

In the standard SIR model, infected vertices infect their neighbors at rate $\lambda$ independently across each edge. They also recover at rate $\gamma$. In this work we consider the SIR-$\omega$ model where the graph structure itself…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-05-16 Wenze Chen , Yuewen Hou , Dong Yao

We exhibit a scaling law for the critical SIS stochastic epidemic: If at time 0 the population consists of square root N infected and N - square root N susceptible individuals, then when time and number currently infected are both scaled by…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 R. G. Dolgoarshinnykh Steven P. Lalley

We study the dynamics of a spatially structured model of worldwide epidemics and formulate predictions for arrival times of the disease at any city in the network. The model is comprised of a system of ordinary differential equations…

Pattern Formation and Solitons · Physics 2018-02-14 Lawrence M. Chen , Matt Holzer , Anne Shapiro

We study in this paper a compartmental SIR model for a population distributed in a bounded domain D of $\mathbb{R}^d$, d= 1, 2, or 3. We describe a spatial model for the spread of a disease on a grid of D. We prove two laws of large…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-07-23 M. N'zi , E. Pardoux , T. Yeo

We present a stochastic model for two successive SIR (Susceptible, Infectious, Recovered) epidemics in the same network structured population. Individuals infected during the first epidemic might have (partial) immunity for the second one.…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-10-29 Frank Ball , Abid Ali Lashari , David Sirl , Pieter Trapman

A network epidemic model is studied. The underlying social network has two different types of group structures, households and workplaces, such that each individual belongs to exactly one household and one workplace. The random network is…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-10-10 Frank Ball , Tom Britton , Peter Neal

We study the influence of the rate of the attainment of herd immunity (HI), in the absence of an approved vaccine, on the vulnerable population. We essentially ask the question: how hard the evolution towards the desired herd immunity could…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-06-01 Sayantan Mondal , Saumyak Mukherjee , Biman Bagchi

We study the spread of susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) infectious diseases where an individual's infectiousness and probability of recovery depend on his/her "age" of infection. We focus first on early outbreak stages when stochastic…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2009-05-14 Joel Miller , Bahman Davoudi , Rafael Meza , Anja Slim , Babak Pourbohloul

We define and study an open stochastic SIR (Susceptible -- Infected -- Removed) model on a graph in order to describe the spread of an epidemic on a cattle trade network with epidemiological and demographic dynamics occurring over the same…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-03-28 Pierre Montagnon

The SIR model is a three-compartment model of the time development of an epidemic. After normalizing the dependent variables, the model is a system of two non-linear differential equations for the susceptible proportion $S$ and the infected…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2021-04-27 William G. Faris

We investigate the long-time dynamics of a SIR epidemic model with infinitely many pathogen variants infecting a homogeneous host population. We show that the basic reproduction number $\mathcal{R}_0$ of the pathogen can be defined in that…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2023-05-11 Jean-Baptiste Burie , Arnaud Ducrot , Quentin Griette

Infectious diseases spread through human networks. Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model is one of the epidemic models to describe infection dynamics on a complex network connecting individuals. In the metapopulation SIR model, each node…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-08-27 Kanako Mizuno , Kazue Kudo