Related papers: Supercritical Spatial SIR Epidemics: Spreading Spe…
In this work, we study the epidemic SIR model on a system which takes into consideration face-to-face interaction networks. This approach has been used as prototype to describe people interactions in different kinds of social organizations…
Although traditional models of epidemic spreading focus on the number of infected, susceptible and recovered individuals, a lot of attention has been devoted to integrate epidemic models with population genetics. Here we develop an…
The spread of an infectious disease depends on intrinsic properties of the disease as well as the connectivity and actions of the population. This study investigates the dynamics of an SIR type model which accounts for human tendency to…
We study a simple case of the susceptible-weakened-infected-removed model in regular random graphs in a situation where an epidemic starts from a finite fraction of initially infected nodes (seeds). Previous studies have shown that,…
Modeling epidemic dynamics plays an important role in studying how diseases spread, predicting their future course, and designing strategies to control them. In this letter, we introduce a model of SIR (susceptible-infected-removed) type…
We consider the SIR epidemiological model applied to the evolution of COVID-19 with two approaches. In the first place we fit a global SIR model, with time delay, and constant parameters throughout the outbreak, including the contagion…
Motivated by recent epidemic outbreaks, including those of COVID-19, we solve the canonical problem of calculating the dynamics and likelihood of extensive outbreaks in a population within a large class of stochastic epidemic models with…
Mathematical modelling of the spread of epidemics has been an interesting challenge in the field of epidemiology. The SIR Model proposed by Kermack and McKendrick in 1927 is a prototypical model of epidemiology. However, it has its…
Epidemic models currently play a central role in our attempts to understand and control infectious diseases. Here, we derive a model for the diffusion limit of stochastic susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) epidemic dynamics on a…
We consider Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) models on dense dynamic random graphs, in which the joint dynamics of vertices and edges are co-evolutionary, i.e., they influence each other bidirectionally. In particular, edges appear and…
Recently the A/H1N1-2009 virus pandemic appeared in Mexico and in other nations. We present a study of this pandemic in the Mexican case using the SIR model to describe epidemics. This model is one of the simplest models but it has been a…
We consider the SEIRS compartment epidemiology model suitable for predicting the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemy in the extreme limiting case of no acquired immunity. The disease-free and endemic fixed points are found and their stability…
This paper presents a vaccination-based control strategy for a SEIR (susceptible plus infected plus infectious plus removed populations) propagation disease model. The model takes into account the total population amounts as a refrain for…
This paper is concerned with a stochastic model for the spread of an SEIR (susceptible -> exposed (=latent) -> infective -> removed) epidemic with a contact tracing scheme, in which removed individuals may name some of their infectious…
In contrast to the common assumption in epidemic models that the rate of infection between individuals is constant, in reality, an individual's viral load determines their infectiousness. We compare the average and individual reproductive…
This paper proposes a novel discrete-time multi-virus SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model that captures the spread of competing SIR epidemics over a population network. First, we provide a sufficient condition for the infection level…
Networks of contacts capable of spreading infectious diseases are often observed to be highly heterogeneous, with the majority of individuals having fewer contacts than the mean, and a significant minority having relatively very many…
Among the statistical tools for online information diffusion modeling, both epidemic models and Hawkes point processes are popular choices. The former originate from epidemiology, and consider information as a viral contagion which spreads…
We develop an extension of the Susceptible-Infected-Recovery (SIR) model to account for spatial variations in population as well as infection and recovery parameters. The equations are derived by taking the continuum limit of discrete…
We explore the emergence of persistent infection in a closed region where the disease progression of the individuals is given by the SIRS model, with an individual becoming infected on contact with another infected individual within a given…