Related papers: Supercritical Spatial SIR Epidemics: Spreading Spe…
Susceptibility governs the dynamics of contagion. The classical SIR model is one of the simplest compartmental models of contagion spread, assuming a single shared susceptibility level. However, variation in susceptibility over a population…
The SEIRS model, an extension of the SEIR model for analyzing and predicting the spread of virus infection, was further extended to consider the movement of people across regions. In contrast to previous models that con-sider the risk of…
Stochastic discrete-time SIS and SIR models of endemic diseases are introduced and analyzed. For the deterministic, mean-field model, the basic reproductive number $R_0$ determines their global dynamics. If $R_0\le 1$, then the frequency of…
The surprisingly mercurial Covid-19 pandemic has highlighted the need to not only accelerate research on infectious disease, but to also study them using novel techniques and perspectives. A major contributor to the difficulty of containing…
We study the propagation of an SIR (susceptible-infectious-recovered) disease over an agent population which, at any instant, is fully divided into couples of agents. Couples are occasionally allowed to exchange their members. This process…
In this paper, we propose a modified susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model, in which each node is assigned with an identical capability of active contacts, $A$, at each time step. In contrast to the previous studies, we find that on…
We study dynamics of spread of epidemics of SIR type in a realistic spatially-explicit geographical region, Southern and Central Ontario, using census data obtained from Statistics Canada, and examine the role of population mixing in…
The main purpose of this paper is to study the local dynamics and bifurcations of a discrete-time SIR epidemiological model. The existence and stability of disease-free and endemic fixed points are investigated along with a fairly complete…
An epidemic model where disease transmission can occur either through global contacts or through local, nearest neighbor interactions is considered. The classical SIR--model describing the global interactions is extended by adding…
Multidimensional continuous-time Markov jump processes $(Z(t))$ on $\mathbb{Z}^p$ form a usual set-up for modeling $SIR$-like epidemics. However, when facing incomplete epidemic data, inference based on $(Z(t))$ is not easy to be achieved.…
We consider a multi-species reaction-diffusion system that arises in epidemiology to describe the spread of several strains, or variants, of a disease in a population. Our model is a natural spatial, multi-species, extension of the…
SIRS models capture transmission dynamics of infectious diseases for which immunity is not lifelong. Extending these models by a W compartment for individuals with waning immunity, the boosting of the immune system upon repeated exposure…
We propose an SIR epidemic model coupled with opinion dynamics to study an epidemic and opinions spreading in a network of communities. Our model couples networked SIR epidemic dynamics with opinions towards the severity of the epidemic,…
We consider a two-patches SIR model where communication occurs thru commuters, distinguishing explicitly permanently resident populations from commuters populations. We give an explicit formula of the reproduction number, and show how the…
Transmission rates in epidemic outbreaks may vary over time depending on the societal response. Non-pharmacological mitigation strategies such as social distancing and the adoption of protective equipment aim precisely at reducing…
We study a well mixed SIR epidemic model with heterogeneous susceptibility and infectivity, allowing for an arbitrary joint distribution of these traits. Using an exact final size formulation and a branching process approximation for early…
Recently, [8] has proposed that heterogeneity of infectiousness (and susceptibility) across individuals in infectious diseases, plays a major role in affecting the Herd Immunity Threshold (HIT). Such heterogeneity has been observed in…
In this paper, we investigate the epidemic spreading for SIR model in weighted scale-free networks with nonlinear infectivity, where the transmission rate in our analytical model is weighted. Concretely, we introduce the infectivity…
Stochastic infection processes are continuous-time Markov chains on graphs that assign each vertex one of multiple states, such as susceptible, infected, or recovered. Depending on the model, vertices change their state based on random…
We present and analyze two simple $N$-particle particle systems for the spread of an infection, respectively with binary and with multi-body interactions. We establish a convergence result, as $N \to \infty$, to a set of kinetic equations,…