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Accurate forecasts of disease outbreaks are critical for effective public health responses, management of healthcare surge capacity, and communication of public risk. There are a growing number of powerful forecasting methods that fall into…
In realistic pursuit-evasion scenarios, abrupt target maneuvers generate unavoidable periods of elevated uncertainty that result in estimation delays. Such delays can degrade interception performance to the point of causing a miss. Existing…
Infectious diseases often spread faster near their peak than would be predicted given early data on transmission. Despite the commonality of this phenomena, there are no known general mechanisms able to cause an exponentially spreading dis-…
In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the integration of interpretable machine learning techniques has garnered significant attention, offering transparent and understandable insights crucial for informed clinical decision making. This…
The COVID-19 pandemic revealed that global health, social systems, and economies can be surprisingly fragile in an increasingly interconnected and interdependent world. Yet, during the last half of 2022, and quite remarkably, we began…
With approximately half of the world's population at risk of contracting dengue, this mosquito-borne disease is of global concern. International travellers significantly contribute to dengue's rapid and large-scale spread by importing the…
Dengue fever is a flu-like illness spread by the bite of an infected mosquito which is fast emerging as a major health problem. Timely and cost effective diagnosis using clinical and laboratory features would reduce the mortality rates…
The 2013 outbreak of Dengue in Fiji resulted in an alarming number of deaths and has been is a matter of serious concern. Dengue fever is a disease caused by the four types of the Dengue virus serotypes and transmitted mostly from mosquito…
A measles outbreak occurs when the number of cases of measles in the population exceeds the typical level. Outbreaks that are not detected and managed early can increase mortality and morbidity and incur costs from activities responding to…
We study a simple realistic model for describing the diffusion of an infectious disease on a population of individuals. The dynamics is governed by a single functional delay differential equation, which, in the case of a large population,…
Emerging in December 2019, the COVID-19 pandemic caused widespread health, economic, and social disruptions. Rapid global transmission overwhelmed healthcare systems, resulting in high infection rates, hospitalisations, and fatalities. To…
We investigate the factors contributing to departure and arrival delays at a major international airport and develop predictive models to estimate both the likelihood and duration of delays. Using logistic regression, random forest, and…
Epidemic models often reflect characteristic features of infectious spreading processes by coupled non-linear differential equations considering different states of health (such as Susceptible, Infected, or Recovered). This compartmental…
Infectious diseases are among the most prominent threats to mankind. When preventive health care cannot be provided, a viable means of disease control is the isolation of individuals, who may be infected. To study the impact of isolation,…
To better predict the dynamics of epidemics such as COVID-19, it is important not only to investigate the network of local and long-range contagious contacts but also to understand the temporal dynamics of infectiousness and detectable…
Public health decisions must be made about when and how to implement interventions to control an infectious disease epidemic. These decisions should be informed by data on the epidemic as well as current understanding about the transmission…
Epidemiological models for the spread of pathogens in a population are usually only able to describe a single pathogen. This makes their application unrealistic in cases where multiple pathogens with similar symptoms are spreading…
Dengue is a notifiable communicable disease in Sri Lanka since 1996. Dengue fever spread rapidly among people living in most of the districts of Sri Lanka. The present notification system of dengue communicable diseases which is enforced by…
Deterministic models are developed for the spatial spread of epidemic diseases in geographical settings. The models are focused on outbreaks that arise from a small number of infected hosts imported into sub-regions of the geographical…
Mathematical models are increasing adopted for setting targets for disease prevention and control. As model-informed policies are implemented, however, the inaccuracies of some forecasts become apparent, for example overprediction of…