Related papers: Addressing delayed case reporting in infectious di…
Modern agile software projects are subject to constant change, making it essential to re-asses overall delay risk throughout the project life cycle. Existing effort estimation models are static and not able to incorporate changes occurring…
A critical component of preventing the spread of vector borne diseases such as Chagas disease are door-to-door campaigns by public health officials that implement insecticide application in order to eradicate the vector infestation of…
Early outbreak data analysis is critical for informing about their potential impact and interventions. However, data obtained early in outbreaks are often sensitive and subject to strict privacy restrictions. Thus, federated analysis, which…
A model for the transmission of dengue disease is presented. It consists of eight mutually-exclusive compartments representing the human and vector dynamics. It also includes a control parameter (insecticide) in order to fight the…
Distributional forecasts are important for a wide variety of applications, including forecasting epidemics. Often, forecasts are miscalibrated, or unreliable in assigning uncertainty to future events. We present a recalibration method that…
Survival analysis is a statistical technique used to estimate the time until an event occurs. Although it is applied across a wide range of fields, adjusting for reporting delays under practical constraints remains a significant challenge…
Clinical trials with time-to-event endpoints, such as overall survival (OS) or progression-free survival (PFS), are fundamental for evaluating new treatments, particularly in immuno-oncology. However, modern therapies, such as…
Performance debugging in production is a fundamental activity in modern service-based systems. The diagnosis of performance issues is often time-consuming, since it requires thorough inspection of large volumes of traces and performance…
Modern city governance relies heavily on crowdsourcing to identify problems such as downed trees and power lines. A major concern is that residents do not report problems at the same rates, with heterogeneous reporting delays directly…
Accurately forecasting flight departure delays is essential for improving operational efficiency and mitigating the cascading disruptions that propagate through tightly coupled aircraft rotations. Traditional machine learning approaches…
Delayed processes are ubiquitous in biological systems and are often characterized by delay differential equations (DDEs) and their extension to include stochastic effects. DDEs do not explicitly incorporate intermediate states associated…
The relationship between epidemiology, mathematical modeling and computational tools allows to build and test theories on the development and battling of a disease. This PhD thesis is motivated by the study of epidemiological models applied…
Probabilistic forecasting of infectious diseases is crucial for public health but relies on labor-intensive manual model curation by expert modeling teams. This bespoke development bottlenecks scalability to granular geographic resolutions…
For decades, dengue virus has been a cause of major public health concern in Costa Rica, due to its landscape and climatic conditions that favor the circumstances in which the vector, Aedes aegypti, thrives. The emergence and introduction…
Using the notion of effective distance proposed by Brockmann and Helbing, complex spatiotemporal processes of epidemic spreading can be reduced to circular wave propagation patterns with well-defined wavefronts. This hidden homogeneity of…
Current WHO guidelines set prevalence thresholds below which a Neglected Tropical Disease can be considered to have been eliminated as a public health problem, and specify how surveys to assess whether elimination has been achieved should…
The global population at risk of mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya and Zika is expanding. Infectious disease models commonly incorporate environmental measures like temperature and precipitation. Given…
Hospitals commonly project demand for their services by combining their historical share of regional demand with forecasts of total regional demand. Hospital-specific forecasts of demand that provide prediction intervals, rather than point…
Purpose: Summarize ICU delirium prediction models published within the past five years. Methods: Electronic searches were conducted in April 2019 using PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Central, Web of Science, and CINAHL to identify peer reviewed…
Case isolation, that is, detection and isolation of infected individuals in order to prevent spread, is a strategy to curb infectious disease epidemics. Here, we study the efficiency of a case isolation strategy subject to time delays in…