Related papers: The USS Trustee's risky strategy
We propose to develop a new class of investment insurance products for holders of superannuation accounts in Australia, which we tentatively call equity protection swaps (EPSs). An EPS is a standalone financial derivative, which is…
Background: Most acute stroke (AS) patients in the United States are initially evaluated at a primary stroke center (PSC) and a significant proportion requires transfer to a comprehensive stroke center (CSC) for advanced treatment. A CSC…
I critique a recent analysis (Miles, Stedman & Heald, 2020) of COVID-19 lockdown costs and benefits, focussing on the United Kingdom (UK). Miles et al. (2020) argue that the March-June UK lockdown was more costly than the benefit of lives…
Many scientists have expressed concerns about potential catastrophic risks associated with new technologies. But expressing concern is one thing, identifying serious candidates another. Such risks are likely to be novel, rare, and difficult…
With the global economic integration and the high interconnection of financial markets, financial institutions are facing unprecedented challenges, especially liquidity risk. This paper proposes a liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) prediction…
Recent efforts to consolidate guidelines and treebanks in the Universal Dependencies project raise the expectation that joint training and dataset comparison is increasingly possible for high-resource languages such as English, which have…
While defaults are rare events, losses can be substantial even for credit portfolios with a large number of contracts. Therefore, not only a good evaluation of the probability of default is crucial, but also the severity of losses needs to…
With growing concerns regarding bias and discrimination in predictive models, the AI community has increasingly focused on assessing AI system trustworthiness. Conventionally, trustworthy AI literature relies on the probabilistic framework…
Since the latest financial crisis, the idea of systemic risk has received considerable interest. In particular, contagion effects arising from cross-holdings between interconnected financial firms have been studied extensively. Drawing…
The Health and Retirement Study is a longitudinal study of US adults enrolled at age 50 and older. We were interested in investigating the effect of a sudden large decline in wealth on the cognitive score of subjects. Our analysis was…
In this paper, we aims to state some proprieties of willingness to pay (WTP) for partial risk reduction and links with insurance within the dual theory of decision. In the case of partial reduction, we get as Langlais (2005) that a…
At face value, this essay is about understanding a fairly esoteric governance tool called compute thresholds. However, in order to grapple with whether these thresholds will achieve anything, we must first understand how they came to be. To…
This work is a commentary of the article \href{https://doi.org/10.18716/ojs/phai/2025.2801}{AI Survival Stories: a Taxonomic Analysis of AI Existential Risk} by Cappelen, Goldstein, and Hawthorne. It is not just a commentary though, but a…
The writers propose a mathematical Method for deriving risk weights which describe how a borrower's income, relative to their debt service obligations (serviceability) affects the probability of default of the loan. The Method considers the…
We present a new stochastic framework for studying ship capsize. It is a synthesis of two strands of transition state theory. The first is an extension of deterministic transition state theory to dissipative non-autonomous systems, together…
Many experts believe that AI systems will sooner or later pose uninsurable risks, including existential risks. This creates an extreme judgment-proof problem: few if any parties can be held accountable ex post in the event of such a…
The introduction of the Segment Anything Model (SAM) has paved the way for numerous semantic segmentation applications. For several tasks, quantifying the uncertainty of SAM is of particular interest. However, the ambiguous nature of the…
Predicting fund performance is beneficial to both investors and fund managers, and yet is a challenging task. In this paper, we have tested whether deep learning models can predict fund performance more accurately than traditional…
This paper is concerned with the problem of budget control in a large particle system modeled by stochastic differential equations involving hitting times, which arises from considerations of systemic risk in a regional financial network.…
The National Science Foundation (NSF) will be experimenting with a new distributed approach to reviewing proposals, whereby a group of principal investigators (PIs) or proposers in a subfield act as reviewers for the proposals submitted by…