Related papers: The USS Trustee's risky strategy
Not everyone who enrolls in college will leave with a certificate or degree, but the number of people who drop out or take a break is much higher than experts previously believed. In December 2013, there were 29 million people with some…
Academic research projects receive hundreds of billions of dollars of government investment each year. They complement business research projects by focusing on the generation of new foundational knowledge and addressing societal…
Current Semi-supervised Learning (SSL) adopts the pseudo-labeling strategy and further filters pseudo-labels based on confidence thresholds. However, this mechanism has notable drawbacks: 1) setting the reasonable threshold is an open…
We analyze the size dependence and temporal stability of firm bankruptcy risk in the US economy by applying Zipf scaling techniques. We focus on a single risk factor-the debt-to-asset ratio R-in order to study the stability of the Zipf…
Transition risk can be defined as the business-risk related to the enactment of green policies, aimed at driving the society towards a sustainable and low-carbon economy. In particular, the value of certain firms' assets can be lower…
In UK data, I document the prevalence of misbeliefs regarding the State Pension eligibility age (SPA) and their predictivity for retirement. Exploiting policy variation, I estimate a lifecycle model of retirement in which, motivated by…
Understanding how individuals make decisions involving risk is a fundamental aspect of behavioral research. Despite the ubiquity of risk in various aspects of life, limited empirical work has explored student risk-taking behavior in…
The problem of stock hedging is reconsidered in this paper, where a put option is chosen from a set of available put options to hedge the market risk of a stock. A formula is proposed to determine the probability that the potential loss…
Within academia, mature researchers tend to be more senior, but do they also tend to write higher impact articles? This article assesses long-term publishing (16+ years) United States (US) researchers, contrasting them with shorter-term…
Covered bonds are a specific example of senior secured debt. If the issuer of the bonds defaults the proceeds of the assets in the cover pool are used for their debt service. If in this situation the cover pool proceeds do not suffice for…
Measuring the corporate default risk is broadly important in economics and finance. Quantitative methods have been developed to predictively assess future corporate default probabilities. However, as a more difficult yet crucial problem,…
The alpha-decay half-lives of recently synthesized superheavy nuclei (SHN) are investigated based on a unified fission model (UFM) where a new method to calculate the assault frequency of alpha-emission is used. The excellent agreement with…
If individuals at the highest mortality risk are also least likely to lapse a life insurance policy, then lapse-supported premiums magnify adverse selection costs. As an example, we model 'Term to 100' contracts, and risk as revealed by…
A multi-fidelity simulator is a numerical model, in which one of the inputs controls a trade-off between the realism and the computational cost of the simulation. Our goal is to estimate the probability of exceeding a given threshold on a…
This study provides an independent, outside-in estimate of the cost and schedule risks of nuclear waste storage projects. Based on a reference class of 216 past, comparable projects, risk of cost overrun was found to be 202% or less, with…
Machine learning techniques combined with in-home monitoring technologies provide a unique opportunity to automate diagnosis and early detection of adverse health conditions in long-term conditions such as dementia. However, accessing…
Membership inference attacks (MIAs) aim to determine whether a specific sample was used to train a predictive model. Knowing this may indeed lead to a privacy breach. Most MIAs, however, make use of the model's prediction scores - the…
Counterparty risk denotes the risk that a party defaults in a bilateral contract. This risk not only depends on the two parties involved, but also on the risk from various other contracts each of these parties holds. In rather informal…
Machine Unlearning (MU) enables Large Language Models (LLMs) to remove unsafe or outdated information. However, existing work assumes that all facts are equally forgettable and largely ignores whether the forgotten knowledge originates from…
Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) are increasingly explored for their energy efficiency and robustness in real-world applications, yet their privacy risks remain largely unexamined. In this work, we investigate the susceptibility of SNNs to…