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We propose a mathematical model to analyze the time evolution of the total number of infected population with Covid-19 disease at a region in the ongoing pandemic. Using the available data of Covid-19 infected population on various…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-08-17 Nilmani Mathur , Gargi Shaw

The phenomenological mathematical model of COVID-19 spreading is proposed for large countries with geographical differentiation of population density. According to the model COVID-19 spreading takes the form of several spatio-temporal waves…

Biological Physics · Physics 2020-12-14 P. S. Grinchuk , S. P. Fisenko

The existence of an exponential growth phase during early stages of a pandemic is often taken for granted. However, for the 2019 novel coronavirus epidemic, the early exponential phase lasted only for about six days, while the quadratic…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2023-02-14 Axel Brandenburg

In this work, we integrate the predictive capabilities of compartmental disease dynamics models with machine learning ability to analyze complex, high-dimensional data and uncover patterns that conventional models may overlook.…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-05-28 Muhammad Awais , Abu Safyan Ali , Giacomo Dimarco , Federica Ferrarese , Lorenzo Pareschi

The dramatic outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemics and its ongoing progression boosted the scientific community's interest in epidemic modeling and forecasting. The SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) model is a…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-02-24 Dimiter Prodanov

The data on number of registered cases of COVID-19 disease in twenty European countries is analyzed by the least-squares fitting procedure with generic analytic functions. Three regimes of the expansion of the disease are identified and…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-04-27 Martin Spousta

In this work we propose a novel space-dependent multiscale model for the spread of infectious diseases in a two-dimensional spatial context on realistic geographical scenarios. The model couples a system of kinetic transport equations…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-12-21 Walter Boscheri , Giacomo Dimarco , Lorenzo Pareschi

On the basis of a compartment model, the epidemic curve is investigated when the net rate $\lambda$ of change of the number of infected individuals $I$ is given by an ellipse in the $\lambda$-$I$ plane which is supported in $[I_{\ell},…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-04-07 Takashi Odagaki

The COVID-19 pandemic prompted a surge in computational models to simulate disease dynamics and guide interventions. Agent-based models (ABMs) are well-suited to capture population and environmental heterogeneity, but their rapid deployment…

Accurate forecasts of COVID-19 is central to resource management and building strategies to deal with the epidemic. We propose a heterogeneous infection rate model with human mobility for epidemic modeling, a preliminary version of which we…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-05-06 Ajitesh Srivastava , Viktor K. Prasanna

COVID-19 pandemic has brought to the fore epidemiological models which, though describing a wealth of behaviors, have previously received little attention in signal processing literature. In this work, a generalized time-varying…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-13 Barbara Pascal , Samuel Vaiter

No, they can't. Epidemic spread is characterized by exponentially growing dynamics, which are intrinsically unpredictable. The time at which the growth in the number of infected individuals halts and starts decreasing cannot be calculated…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2022-05-20 Mario Castro , Saúl Ares , José A. Cuesta , Susanna Manrubia

Infectious pathogens often propagate by superspreading, which focusses onward transmission on disproportionately few infected individuals. At the same time, infector-infectee pairs tend to have more similar transmission potentials than…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-09-22 Noah Silva de Leonardi , Benjamin D. Dalziel

A model of reactive social distancing in epidemics is proposed, in which the infection rate changes with the number infected. The final-size equation for the total number that the epidemic will infect can be derived analytically, as can the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-03-19 Rose Baker

Infectious disease transmission in human populations has a complex two-way interaction with changes in host behaviour. It is increasingly recognised that incorporating adaptive behavioural change into epidemic models is important for…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2026-04-14 Michael J. Plank , Matt Ryan , Lloyd Chapman , Roslyn I. Hickson , Thomas House , Emma McBryde , James M. McCaw

The surprisingly mercurial Covid-19 pandemic has highlighted the need to not only accelerate research on infectious disease, but to also study them using novel techniques and perspectives. A major contributor to the difficulty of containing…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2022-07-21 Aminur Rahman , Angela Peace , Ramesh Kesawan , Souparno Ghosh

COVID-19 pandemic has an unprecedented impact all over the world since early 2020. During this public health crisis, reliable forecasting of the disease becomes critical for resource allocation and administrative planning. The results from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-07 Xiaoyong Jin , Yu-Xiang Wang , Xifeng Yan

This study offers a new paradigm of individual-level modeling to address the grand challenge of incorporating human behavior in epidemic models. Using generative artificial intelligence in an agent-based epidemic model, each agent is…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-07-12 Ross Williams , Niyousha Hosseinichimeh , Aritra Majumdar , Navid Ghaffarzadegan

In this paper, we estimate epidemiological data of the COVID-19 pandemic in Hungary using only the daily number of hospitalized patients, and applying well-known techniques from systems and control theory. We use a previously published and…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-05-11 Balazs Csutak , Peter Polcz , Gabor Szederkenyi

The recent COVID-19 pandemic has led to an increasing interest in the modeling and analysis of infectious diseases. The pandemic has made a significant impact on the way we behave and interact in our daily life. The past year has witnessed…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2021-06-17 Shutian Liu , Yuhan Zhao , Quanyan Zhu