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The aim of the paper is to describe a model of the development of the Covid-19 contamination of the population of a country or a region. For this purpose a special branching process with two types of individuals is considered. This model is…
In the new paradigm of health-centric governance, policy makers are in a constant need for appropriate metrics and estimates in order to determine the best policies in a non-arbitrary fashion. Thus, in this paper, a compartmentalized model…
Epidemic models study the spread of an undesired agent through a population, be it infectious diseases through a country, misinformation in online social media, or pests infesting a region. In combating these epidemics, we rely neither on…
In this work, the SIR epidemiological model is reformulated so to highlight the important {\em effective reproduction number}, as well as to account for the {\em generation time}, inverse of the {\em incidence rate}, and the {\em infectious…
Mobility data at EU scale can help understand the dynamics of the pandemic and possibly limit the impact of future waves. Still, since a reliable and consistent method to measure the evolution of contagion at international level is missing,…
In this paper, we present a model to predict the spread of the Covid-19 epidemic and apply it to the specific case of Italy. We started from a simple Susceptible, Infected, Recovered (SIR) model and we added the condition that, after a…
We propose a new method to estimate the time-varying effective (or instantaneous) reproduction number of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). The method is based on a discrete-time stochastic augmented compartmental model that…
Agent-based models have proven to be useful tools in supporting decision-making processes in different application domains. The advent of modern computers and supercomputers has enabled these bottom-up approaches to realistically model…
Raw data on the cumulative number of deaths at a country level generally indicate a spatially variable distribution of the incidence of COVID-19 disease. An important issue is to determine whether this spatial pattern is a consequence of…
Background: Recently developed techniques to study the spread of infectious diseases through networks make assumptions that the initial proportion infected is infinitesimal and the population behavior is static throughout the epidemic. The…
Compartmental models are the most widely used framework for modeling infectious diseases. These models have been continuously refined to incorporate all the realistic mechanisms that can shape the course of an epidemic outbreak. Building on…
Since the first outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic at the end of 2019, data has been made available on the number of infections, deaths and recoveries for all countries of the World, and that data can be used for statistical analysis. The…
During the COVID-19 pandemic, a large variance of incidence rates on local level, e.g. cities and districts, within one country has been observed, while the same non-pharmaceutical measures have been taken to control the spread of the…
Viral outbreaks, such as the current COVID-19 pandemic, are commonly described by compartmental models by means of ordinary differential equation (ODE) systems. The parameter values of these ODE models are typically unknown and need to be…
We consider the control of the COVID-19 pandemic through a standard SIR compartmental model. This control is induced by the aggregation of individuals' decisions to limit their social interactions: when the epidemic is ongoing, an…
Individuals socio-demographic and economic characteristics crucially shape the spread of an epidemic by largely determining the exposure level to the virus and the severity of the disease for those who got infected. While the complex…
The paper deals with a modeling of the ongoing epidemic caused by Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on the closed territory of the Republic of Croatia. Using the official public information on the number of confirmed infected, recovered…
Compartmental epidemic models have been widely used for predicting the course of epidemics, from estimating the basic reproduction number to guiding intervention policies. Studies commonly acknowledge these models' assumptions but less…
In December 2019, the first patients in Wuhan, China were diagnosed with a primary atypical pneumonia, which showed to be unknown and contagious. Since then, known as COVID-19 disease, the responsible viral pathogen, SARS-CoV-2, has spread…
Current available data of the worldwide impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has been analyzed using dimensional analysis and self-similarity hypotheses. We show that the time series of infected population and deaths of the most impacted and…