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In light of the continuous transmission and evolution of SARS-CoV-2 coupled with a significant decline in clinical testing, there is a pressing need for scalable, cost-effective, long-term, passive surveillance tools to effectively monitor…

The determination of the infection fatality rate (IFR) for the novel SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus is a key aim for many of the field studies that are currently being undertaken in response to the pandemic. The IFR together with the basic…

There is a near consensus view that SARS-CoV-2 has a natural zoonotic origin; however, several characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 taken together are not easily explained by a natural zoonotic origin hypothesis. These include: a low rate of…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-02-10 Rossana Segreto , Yuri Deigin , Kevin McCairn , Alejandro Sousa , Dan Sirotkin , Karl Sirotkin , Jonathan J. Couey , Adrian Jones , Daoyu Zhang

During the early stages of respiratory virus outbreaks, such as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the efficient utilize of limited nasopharyngeal swabs for rapid and accurate screening is crucial for public…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-10-29 Wenwen Zhang , Zhouzhuo Tang , Yingmei Feng , Xia Yu , Qi Jie Wang , Zhiping Lin

We develop a spatially dependent generalisation to the Wells-Riley model and its extensions applied to COVID-19, that determines the infection risk due to airborne transmission of viruses. We assume that the concentration of infectious…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2021-05-19 Zechariah Lau , Ian M. Griffiths , Aaron English , Katerina Kaouri

Relevance: Laboratory diagnosis of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) infection combined with quarantine for contacts of infected individuals affects the spread of SARS-CoV-2 infection and levels of related mortality. Practices for testing…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-10-27 Edward Goldstein

COVID-19 vaccines are highly efficacious at preventing symptomatic infection, severe disease, and death. Most of the evidence that COVID-19 vaccines also reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is based on retrospective, observational studies.…

Applications · Statistics 2022-06-16 Marlena S. Bannick , Fei Gao , Elizabeth R. Brown , Holly E. Janes

The global fraction of anthropogenically emitted carbon dioxide (CO$_2$) that stays in the atmosphere, the CO$_2$ airborne fraction, has been fluctuating around a constant value over the period 1959 to 2022. The consensus estimate of the…

Applications · Statistics 2024-08-22 Mikkel Bennedsen , Eric Hillebrand , Siem Jan Koopman

Network scientists have proposed that infectious diseases involving person-to-person transmission may be effectively halted by targeting interventions at a minority of highly connected individuals. Can this strategy be effective in…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2020-11-16 Gianluca Manzo , Arnout van de Rijt

Superspreading complicates the study of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. I propose a model for aggregated case data that accounts for superspreading and improves statistical inference. In a Bayesian framework, the model is estimated on German data…

Applications · Statistics 2020-11-10 Patrick W. Schmidt

In this paper a Bayesian SEIR model is studied to estimate the proportion of the population infected with SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for COVID-19. To capture heterogeneity in the population and the effect of interventions to reduce…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-05-28 Henrik Hult , Martina Favero

Although previous infection and vaccination provide protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection, both reinfection and breakthrough infection are possible events whose occurrence would increase with time after first exposure to the antigen and…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2022-06-07 Ariel Félix Gualtieri , Carolina de la Cal , Augusto Francisco Toma , Pedro Hecht

A pipeline to evaluate the evolution of viral dynamics based on a new model-driven approach has been developed in the present study. The proposed methods exploit real data and the multiscale structure of the infection dynamics to provide…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-11-25 Andrea Bondesan , Antonio Piralla , Elena Ballante , Antonino Maria Guglielmo Pitrolo , Silvia Figini , Fausto Baldanti , Mattia Zanella

The present paper introduces a new model used to study and analyse the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV2) epidemic-reported-data from Spain. This is a Hidden Markov Model whose hidden layer is a regeneration process…

Exhaled droplet and aerosol-mediated transmission of respiratory diseases, including SARS-CoV-2, is exacerbated in poorly ventilated environments where body heat-driven airflow prevails. Employing large-scale simulations, we reveal how the…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2023-03-24 Chao-Ben Zhao , Jian-Zhao Wu , Bo-Fu Wang , Tienchong Chang , Quan Zhou , Kai Leong Chong

Airborne transmission is now believed to be the primary way that COVID-19 spreads. We study the airborne transmission risk associated with holding in-person classes on university campuses. We utilize a model for airborne transmission risk…

Physics and Society · Physics 2021-04-13 Arvin Hekmati , Mitul Luhar , Bhaskar Krishnamachari , Maja Matarić

In February 2020 the first human infection with SARS-CoV-2 was reported in Germany. Since then the local public health offices have been responsible to monitor and react to the dynamics of the pandemic. One of their major tasks is to…

Applications · Statistics 2021-07-02 Sonja Jäckle , Elias Röger , Volker Dicken , Benjamin Geisler , Jakob Schumacher , Max Westphal

The outbreak of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) threatens global medical systems and economies, and rules our daily living life. Controlling the outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 has become one of the most important…

Medical Physics · Physics 2020-10-09 Jing Zhong , Enja Laureen Roesch , Thilo Viereck , Meinhard Schilling , Frank Ludwig
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