Related papers: Computing the Death Rate of COVID-19
Facing the world wide coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, a new fitting method (QDF, quasi-distribution fitting) which could be used to analyze the data of COVID-19 is developed based on piecewise quasi-uniform B-spline curves.…
I critique a recent analysis (Miles, Stedman & Heald, 2020) of COVID-19 lockdown costs and benefits, focussing on the United Kingdom (UK). Miles et al. (2020) argue that the March-June UK lockdown was more costly than the benefit of lives…
Obtaining up to date information on the number of UK COVID-19 regional infections is hampered by the reporting lag in positive test results for people with COVID-19 symptoms. In the UK, for "Pillar 2" swab tests for those showing symptoms,…
Since December 2019, the world has been witnessing the gigantic effect of an unprecedented global pandemic called Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) - COVID-19. So far, 38,619,674 confirmed cases and 1,093,522…
A simple analytical model for modeling the evolution of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic is presented. The model is based on the numerical solution of the widely used Susceptible-Infectious-Removed (SIR) populations model for describing…
As the COVID-19 ravaging through the globe, accurate forecasts of the disease spread is crucial for situational awareness, resource allocation, and public health decision-making. Alternative to the traditional disease surveillance data…
In this paper, we examine cross-country differences, in terms of the age distribution of symptomatic cases, hospitalizations, intensive care unit (ICU) cases, and fatalities due to the novel COVID-19. By calculating conditional…
Quantifying the number of deaths caused by the COVID-19 crisis has been an ongoing challenge for scientists, and no golden standard to do so has yet been established. We propose a principled approach to calculate age-adjusted yearly excess…
Respiratory failure is the one of major causes of death in critical care unit. During the outbreak of COVID-19, critical care units experienced an extreme shortage of mechanical ventilation because of respiratory failure related syndromes.…
There are many sources of data giving information about the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the population, but all have major drawbacks, including biases and delayed reporting. For example, the number of confirmed cases largely…
Patients with severe Coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) typically require supplemental oxygen as an essential treatment. We developed a machine learning algorithm, based on a deep Reinforcement Learning (RL), for continuous management of…
The COVID-19 pandemic has placed forecasting models at the forefront of health policy making. Predictions of mortality and hospitalization help governments meet planning and resource allocation challenges. In this paper, we consider the…
Epidemiological models with constant parameters may not capture satisfactory infection patterns in the presence of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical mitigation measures during a pandemic, since infectiousness is a function of time. In…
In this article, we model and study the spread of COVID-19 in Germany, Japan, India and highly impacted states in India, i.e., in Delhi, Maharashtra, West Bengal, Kerala and Karnataka. We consider recorded data published in Worldometers and…
The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted lives and economies across the globe, leading to many deaths. While vaccination is an important intervention, its roll-out is slow and unequal across the globe. Therefore, extensive testing still remains…
A simple Monte-Carlo method will be put forward herein, to enable the extraction of an estimate for the quarantine duration, applicable to visitors to high-risk regions. Results will be obtained on the basis of an analysis of the upper tail…
The U.S. Covid-19 data exhibit a high-frequency oscillation along a low-frequency wave for outbreaks. There is no model to account for it. A modified SIR model is proposed to explain this spiking phenomenon. It is also used to best-fit the…
In this paper, we use SEIR equations to make predictions for the number of mortality due to COVID-19 in \.Istanbul. Using excess mortality method, we find the number of mortality for the previous three waves in 2020 and 2021. We show that…
Previous research has demonstrated that various properties of infectious diseases can be inferred from online search behaviour. In this work we use time series of online search query frequencies to gain insights about the prevalence of…
We provide a probabilistic SIRD model for the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy, where we allow the infection, recovery and death rates to be random. In particular, the underlying random factor is driven by a fractional Brownian motion. Our model…