In this paper, we use SEIR equations to make predictions for the number of mortality due to COVID-19 in \.Istanbul. Using excess mortality method, we find the number of mortality for the previous three waves in 2020 and 2021. We show that the predictions of our model is consistent with number of moralities for each wave. Furthermore, we predict the number of mortality for the second wave of 2021. We also extend our analysis for Germany, Italy and Turkey to compare the basic reproduction number R0 for Istanbul. Finally, we calculate the number of infected people in Istanbul for herd immunity.
@article{arxiv.2201.09309,
title = {COVID-19 mortality prediction: A case study for \.Istanbul},
author = {Erkan Yilmaz and Ozgur Oku and Ekrem Aydiner},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2201.09309},
year = {2022}
}