A fractional model for the COVID-19 pandemic: Application to Italian data
Populations and Evolution
2020-08-04 v1 Physics and Society
Abstract
We provide a probabilistic SIRD model for the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy, where we allow the infection, recovery and death rates to be random. In particular, the underlying random factor is driven by a fractional Brownian motion. Our model is simple and needs only some few parameters to be calibrated.
Keywords
Cite
@article{arxiv.2008.00033,
title = {A fractional model for the COVID-19 pandemic: Application to Italian data},
author = {Elisa Alòs and Maria Elvira Mancino and Raúl Merino and Simona Sanfelici},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2008.00033},
year = {2020}
}
Comments
20 pages, 26 figures