Related papers: A nonlinear cross-diffusion epidemic with time-dep…
The effect of spatial correlations on the spread of infectious diseases was investigated using a stochastic SIR (Susceptible-Infective-Recovered) model on complex networks. It was found that in addition to the reduction of the effective…
The SIR model is a three-compartment model of the time development of an epidemic. After normalizing the dependent variables, the model is a system of two non-linear differential equations for the susceptible proportion $S$ and the infected…
This paper is concerned with two frequency-dependent SIS epidemic reaction-diffusion models in heterogeneous environment, with a cross-diffusion term modeling the effect that susceptible individuals tend to move away from higher…
We introduce a kinetic framework for modeling the time evolution of the statistical distributions of the population densities in the three compartments of susceptible, infectious, and recovered individuals, under epidemic spreading driven…
We propose a novel multi-scale modeling framework for infectious disease spreading, borrowing ideas and modeling tools from the so-called Refractory Density (RD) approach. We introduce a microscopic model that describes the probability of…
We study the dynamics of a spatially structured model of worldwide epidemics and formulate predictions for arrival times of the disease at any city in the network. The model is comprised of a system of ordinary differential equations…
In the recent COVID-19 pandemic we assisted at a sequence of epidemic waves intertwined by anomalous fade-outs with periods of low but persistent epidemic prevalence. These long-living epidemic states complicate epidemic control and…
The epidemic spreading on arbitrary complex networks is studied in SIR (Susceptible Infected Recovered) compartment model. We propose our implementation of a Naive SIR algorithm for epidemic simulation spreading on networks that uses data…
This paper examines a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic reaction-diffusion model with no-flux boundary conditions and constant total population. The infection mechanism in the model is described by a nonlinear term of the form…
In this work we review a class of deterministic nonlinear models for the propagation of infectious diseases over contact networks with strongly-connected topologies. We consider network models for susceptible-infected (SI),…
This paper considers a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic reaction-diffusion model with no-flux boundary conditions and varying total population. The interaction of the susceptible and infected people is describe by the…
This paper is devoted to the study of an age-structured SIRS epidemic model, in which a population affected by a disease is divided into susceptible, infected, and removed individuals. We assume that the force of infection may be nonlinear…
We propose a novel methodology for estimating the epidemiological parameters of a modified SIRD model (acronym of Susceptible, Infected, Recovered and Deceased individuals) and perform a short-term forecast of SARS-CoV-2 virus spread. We…
The contact process is an emblematic model of a non-equilibrium system, containing a phase transition between inactive and active dynamical regimes. In the epidemiological context, the model is known as the susceptible-infected-susceptible…
We introduce a stochastic SIR-type partial differential equation model incorporating random diffusion, reinfection, vital dynamics, and a randomly varying transmission rate. For the associated random dynamical system, we prove the existence…
Infection spread among individuals is modelled with a continuous time Markov chain, in which subject interactions depend on their distance in space. The well known SIR model and non local variants of the latter are then obtained as large…
In this paper, we propose a new real-time differential virus transmission model, which can give more accurate and robust short-term predictions of COVID-19 transmitted infectious disease with benefits of near-term trend projection.…
In this paper, we propose a Susceptible-Infected-Removal (SIR) model with time fused coefficients. In particular, our proposed model discovers the underlying time homogeneity pattern for the SIR model's transmission rate and removal rate…
We study a discrete Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model for the spread of infectious disease on a homogeneous tree and the limit behavior of the model in the case when the tree vertex degree tends to infinity. We obtain the…
We present an exact analytical solution to a one-dimensional model of the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic type, with infection rates dependent on nearest-neighbor occupations. We use a quantum mechanical approach, transforming…