On automatic calibration of the SIRD epidemiological model for COVID-19 data in Poland
Methodology
2022-04-27 v1 Machine Learning
Abstract
We propose a novel methodology for estimating the epidemiological parameters of a modified SIRD model (acronym of Susceptible, Infected, Recovered and Deceased individuals) and perform a short-term forecast of SARS-CoV-2 virus spread. We mainly focus on forecasting number of deceased. The procedure was tested on reported data for Poland. For some short-time intervals we performed numerical test investigating stability of parameter estimates in the proposed approach. Numerical experiments confirm the effectiveness of short-term forecasts (up to 2 weeks) and stability of the method. To improve their performance (i.e. computation time) GPU architecture was used in computations.
Cite
@article{arxiv.2204.12346,
title = {On automatic calibration of the SIRD epidemiological model for COVID-19 data in Poland},
author = {Piotr Błaszczyk and Konrad Klimczak and Adam Mahdi and Piotr Oprocha and Paweł Potorski and Paweł Przybyłowicz and Michał Sobieraj},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2204.12346},
year = {2022}
}
Comments
17 pages, 7 figures