Related papers: Uncertainty in Climate Science: Not Cause for Inac…
This paper aims to project a climate change scenario using a stochastic paleotemperature time series model and compare it with the prevailing consensus. The ARIMA - Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Process model was used for this…
The problem of the insensitivity of the macroscopic behavior of any thermodynamical system to partitioning generates a bias between the reproducibility of its macroscopic behavior viewed as the simplest form of causality and its long-term…
This paper studies natural disasters and the psychological costs of climate change. It presents what we believe to be the first evidence that higher temperature variability and not a higher level of temperature is what predicts natural…
Earlier meta-analyses of the economic impact of climate change are updated with more data, with three new results: (1) The central estimate of the economic impact of global warming is always negative. (2) The confidence interval about the…
Palaeoclimate archives contain information on climate variability, trends and mechanisms. Models are developed to explain observations and predict the response of the climate system to perturbations, in particular perturbations associated…
How regional heterogeneity in social and cultural processes drive--and respond to--climate dynamics is little studied. Here we present a coupled social-climate model stratified across five world regions and parameterized with geophysical,…
Extensive numerical evidence shows that the assimilation of observations has a stabilizing effect on unstable dynamics, in numerical weather prediction and elsewhere. In this paper, we apply mathematically rigorous methods to showing why…
Global temperature is a fundamental climate metric highly correlated with sea level, which implies that keeping shorelines near their present location requires keeping global temperature within or close to its preindustrial Holocene range.…
Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are pivotal tools that synthesize knowledge from climate science, economics, and policy to evaluate the interactions between human activities and the climate system. They serve as essential instruments…
Climate science is the multidisciplinary field that studies the Earth's climate and its evolution. At the very core of climate science are indispensable climate models that predict future climate scenarios, inform policy decisions, and…
Future climate change impacts depend on temperatures not only through changes in their means but also through changes in their variability. General circulation models (GCMs) predict changes in both means and variability; however, GCM output…
We apply two independent data analysis methodologies to locate stable climate states in an intermediate complexity climate model and analyze their interplay. First, drawing from the theory of quasipotentials, and viewing the state space as…
This paper proposes strategies to detect time reversibility in stationary stochastic processes by using the properties of mixed causal and noncausal models. It shows that they can also be used for non-stationary processes when the trend…
One of the big problems of the age concerns 'Global Warming', and whether it is 'man-made' or 'natural'. Most climatologists believe that it is very likely to be the former but some scientists (mostly non-climatologists) subscribe to the…
We revisit a recent claim that the Earth's climate system is characterized by sensitive dependence to parameters; in particular, that the system exhibits an asymmetric, large-amplitude response to normally distributed feedback forcing. Such…
Carbon dioxide (CO2) increase has been well documented, and global net primary production is of importance to a variety of ecological topics. Since CO2 increases primary production in laboratory experiments, the global effects of increasing…
In this article, we review the interdisciplinary techniques (borrowed from physics, mathematics, statistics, machine-learning, etc.) and methodological framework that we have used to understand climate systems, which serve as examples of…
The extent to which the ongoing decline in Arctic sea ice affects mid-latitude climate has received great attention and polarised opinions. The basic issue is whether the inter-annual variability in Arctic sea ice is the cause of, or the…
Climate change has become one of the biggest global problems increasingly compromising the Earth's habitability. Recent developments such as the extraordinary heat waves in California & Canada, and the devastating floods in Germany point to…
We consider stochastic thermodynamics as a theory of statistical inference for experimentally observed fluctuating time-series. To that end, we introduce a general framework for quantifying the knowledge about the dynamical state of the…