Related papers: Uncertainty in Climate Science: Not Cause for Inac…
We investigate thermodynamics of general nonequilibrium processes stopped at stochastic times. We propose a systematic strategy for constructing fluctuation-theorem-like martingales for each thermodynamic functional, yielding a family of…
Scientists agree about the urgency of the problem of climate change. Most citizens, however, pay little attention to gradually increasing temperature levels. Growing numbers of natural disasters in the world might then play a fundamental…
1. Although environmental variability is expected to play a more prominent role under climate change, current demographic models that ignore the differential environmental histories of cohorts across generations are unlikely to accurately…
Climate-mediated changes in the spatiotemporal distribution of thermal stress can destabilize animal populations and promote extinction risk. Using quantile, spectral, and wavelet analyses of temperature projections from the latest…
We write a nonlinear model that predicts the climate (temperature and humidity) on the surface of a small region on Earth, perform numerical investigations using the model, and compare the results to real climate on a variety of regions on…
Global Climate Models are key tools for predicting the future response of the climate system to a variety of natural and anthropogenic forcings. Here we show how to use statistical mechanics to construct operators able to flexibly predict…
Perturbation experiments are carried out by contact process and its mean-field version. Here, the mortality rate is increased or decreased suddenly. It is known that the fluctuation enhancement (FE) occurs after the perturbation, where FE…
We briefly review some of the scientific challenges and epistemological issues related to climate science. We discuss the formulation and testing of theories and numerical models, which, given the presence of unavoidable uncertainties in…
Record-breaking temperature events are now very frequently in the news, viewed as evidence of climate change. With this as motivation, we undertake the first substantial spatial modeling investigation of temperature record-breaking across…
Understanding how climate and innovation policies perform during socio-technical transitions remains a central challenge in innovation studies. Empirical analyses of the relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions continue to…
Stochastic diffusion is the noisy and uncertain process through which dynamics like epidemics, or agents like animal species, disperse over a larger area. Understanding these processes is becoming increasingly important as we attempt to…
Projections of future climate change rely heavily on climate models, and combining climate models through a multi-model ensemble is both more accurate than a single climate model and valuable for uncertainty quantification. However,…
Modeling globally averaged information on climate forcing from the land surface temperature data, the sea surface temperatures (SST) and the empirically determined relationship between the changes in SST and the turbulent diffusion of heat…
A new statistical approach is presented to study the thermal instability process of optically thin unmagnetized plasma. In this approach the time evolution of mass distribution function over temperature is calculated. This function…
Projecting climate change is a generalization problem: we extrapolate the recent past using physical models across past, present, and future climates. Current climate models require representations of processes that occur at scales smaller…
This paper addresses fundamental aspects of statistical mechanics such as the motivation of a classical state space with spontaneous transitions, the meaning of non-equilibrium in the context of thermalization, and the justification of…
This paper introduces a novel approach to financial crisis prediction by establishing a thermodynamic-like framework derived from the fluctuation theorem of statistical physics. We define market temperature through the probability ratio of…
Gibbs and Boltzmann definitions of temperature agree only in the macroscopic limit. The ambiguity in identifying the equilibrium temperature of a finite sized `small' system exchanging energy with a bath is usually understood as a…
Climate change is a result of a complex system of interactions of greenhouse gases (GHG), the ocean, land, ice, and clouds. Large climate change models use several computers and solve several equations to predict the future climate. The…
Superstatistics is a framework in nonequilibrium statistical mechanics that successfully describes a wide variety of complex systems, including hydrodynamic turbulence, weakly-collisional plasmas, cosmic rays, power grid fluctuations, among…