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Extreme precipitation shows non-stationary behavior over time, but also with respect to other large-scale variables. While this effect is often neglected, we propose a model including the influence of North Atlantic Oscillation, time,…
Climate statistics is of course a very broad field, along with the many connections and impacts for yet other areas, with a history as long as mankind has been recording temperatures, describing drastic weather events, etc. The important…
Seasonal climate forecasts are being used increasingly across a range of application sectors. A recent UK governmental report asked: How good are seasonal climate forecasts on a scale of 1-5 (where 5 is very good), and how good can we…
Recent work has provided ample evidence that nonlinear methods of time series analysis potentially allow for detecting periods of anomalous dynamics in paleoclimate proxy records that are otherwise hidden to classical statis- tical…
A primary objective of the NASA Earth-Sun Exploration Technology Office is to understand the observed Earth climate variability, thus enabling the determination and prediction of the climate's response to both natural and human-induced…
This paper studies a regression model with functional dependent and explanatory variables, both of which exhibit nonstationary dynamics. The model assumes that the nonstationary stochastic trends of the dependent variable are explained by…
Regional climate change in the $21^{st}$ century will result from the interplay between human-induced changes and internal climate variability. Competing effects from greenhouse gas warming and aerosol cooling have historically caused…
We developed a coupled social-climate network model to understand the interaction between climate change opinion spread and the climate system and determine the role of this interaction in shaping collective actions and global temperature…
We present a new approach to modeling the future development of extreme temperatures globally and on a long time-scale by using non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions in combination with logistic functions. This approach is…
Understanding when global glaciations occur on Earth-like planets is a major challenge in climate evolution research. Most models of how greenhouse gases like CO2 evolve with time on terrestrial planets are deterministic, but the complex,…
Paleoclimate records provide a critical long-term perspective on natural climate variability, essential for understanding contemporary climate change. However, existing paleoclimate proxies lack the spatial-temporal coverage for studying…
Large ensembles of climate projections are essential for characterizing uncertainty in future climate and extreme weather events, yet computational constraints of numerical climate models limit ensemble sizes to a small number of…
For a variety of inter-related cultural, organizational, and political reasons, progress in climate science and the actual solution of scientific problems in this field have moved at a much slower rate than would normally be possible. Not…
Global surface temperature records (e.g. HadCRUT4) since 1850 are characterized by climatic oscillations synchronous with specific solar, planetary and lunar harmonics superimposed on a background warming modulation. The latter is related…
In recent years there has been a surge of interest in the statistics of record-breaking events in stochastic processes. Along with that, many new and interesting applications of the theory of records were discovered and explored. The record…
Meaningful climate predictions must be accompanied by their corresponding range of uncertainty. Quantifying the uncertainties is non-trivial, and different methods have been suggested and used in the past. Here, we propose a method that…
Climate change is a massive multidimensional shift. Temperature shifts, in particular, have important implications for urbanization, agriculture, health, productivity, and poverty, among other things. While much research has documented…
A simple 3-parameter random walk model for monthly fluctuations $\triangle T$ of a temperature $T$ is introduced. Applied to a time range of 170 years, temperature fluctuations of the model produce for about 14\% of the runs warming that…
We analyze the occurrence and the values of record-breaking temperatures in daily and monthly temperature observations. Our aim is to better understand and quantify the statistics of temperature records in the context of global warming.…
Natural climate variability, captured through multiple initial condition ensembles, may be comparable to the variability caused by knowledge gaps in future emissions trajectories and in the physical science basis, especially at…