Related papers: a dynamo-based prediction of solar cycle 25
Prediction of the solar cycle is challenging but essential because it drives space weather. Several predictions with varying amplitudes of the ongoing Cycle~25 have been made. We show that an aspect of the Waldmeier effect (WE2), i.e., a…
The Solar Cycle is reviewed. The 11-year cycle of solar activity is characterized by the rise and fall in the numbers and surface area of sunspots. A number of other solar activity indicators also vary in association with the sunspots…
We study the sunspot activity in relation to spotless days (SLDs) during the descending phase of solar cycle $11$--$24$ to predict the amplitude of sunspot cycle $25$. For this purpose, in addition to SLD, we also use the geomagnetic…
Here we study the prediction of even and odd numbered sunspot cycles separately, thereby taking into account the Hale cyclicity of solar magnetism. We first show that the temporal evolution and shape of all sunspot cycles are extremely well…
Over the past century, the Sun's activity -- which exhibits significant variations -- went through a phase known as the Modern Maximum. Notably, the strongest sunspot cycle on record during this period, and indeed since direct sunspot…
The inherent stochastic and nonlinear nature of the solar dynamo makes the strength of the solar cycles vary in a wide range, making it difficult to predict the strength of an upcoming solar cycle. Recently, our work has shown that by using…
Direct observations over the past four centuries show that the number of sunspots observed on the Sun's surface vary periodically, going through successive maxima and minima. Following sunspot cycle 23, the Sun went into a prolonged minimum…
The recent paucity of sunspots and the delay in the expected start of Solar Cycle 24 have drawn attention to the challenges involved in predicting solar activity. Traditional models of the solar cycle usually require information about the…
A phenomenological model is presented for the quantitative description of individual solar cycles' features, such as onset, intensity, evolution, in terms of the number of M and X-class solar flares. The main elements of the model are the…
A new formula for predicting solar cycles based on the current theoretical understanding of the solar cycle from flux transport dynamo is presented. Two important processes---fluctuations in the Babcock-Leighton mechanism and variations in…
The level of solar magnetic activity, as exemplified by the number of sunspots and by energetic events in the corona, varies on a wide range of time scales. Most prominent is the 11-year solar cycle, which is significantly modulated on…
Is Solar Cycle 24 anomalous? How do we predict the main features of a forthcoming cycle? In order to reply such questions, this work partitions quantitatively each cycle into valley, ascend, peak, and descend phases, statistically…
The prediction of the strength of future solar cycles is of interest because of its practical significance for space weather and as a test of our theoretical understanding of the solar cycle. The Babcock-Leighton mechanism allows…
Solar activity forecasting is an important topic for numerous scientific and technological areas, such as space mission operations, electric power transmission lines, power transformation stations and earth geophysical and climatic impact.…
Over the last decade there has been mounting evidence that the strength of the Sun's polar magnetic fields during a solar cycle minimum is the best predictor of the amplitude of the next solar cycle. Surface flux transport models can be…
Forecasting the strength of the sunspot cycle is highly important for many space weather applications. Our previous studies have shown the importance of sunspot number variability in the declining phase of the current 11-year sunspot cycle…
We present a comprehensive analysis of Solar Cycle 25 aimed at precisely constraining the interval of its activity maximum using multiple observational parameters: sunspot number (SSN), Wolf number, the 10.7 cm solar radio flux (F10.7), the…
Sunspot activity is highly variable and challenging to forecast. Yet forecasts are important, since peak activity has profound effects on major geophysical phenomena including space weather (satellite drag, telecommunications outages) and…
The solar magnetic activity cycle is responsible for periodic episodes of severe space weather, which can perturb satellite orbits, interfere with communications systems, and bring down power grids. Much progress has recently been made in…
Evidence strongly indicates that the strength of the Sun's polar fields near the time of a sunspot cycle minimum determines the strength of the following solar activity cycle. We use our Advective Flux Transport (AFT) code, with flows well…