Related papers: a dynamo-based prediction of solar cycle 25

By using the unique database of SOHO/MDI full disk magnetograms from 1996 September to 2011 January, covering the entire solar cycle 23, we analyze the time-variability of the solar magnetic flux spectrum and study the properties of…

It is known that the weak state of the heliosphere due to diminished solar activity in cycle 24 back-reacted on coronal mass ejections (CMEs) to make them appear wider for a given speed. One of the consequences of the weak state of the…

We use Sun-as-a-star helioseismology data, collected by the Birmingham Solar-Oscillations Network (BiSON), to examine the relationship between the solar-cycle-induced frequency shifts of whole-Sun, low-angular degree solar p modes and…

We discuss the difficulties of predicting the solar cycle using mean-field models. Here we argue that these difficulties arise owing to the significant modulation of the solar activity cycle, and that this modulation arises owing to either…

The last solar minimum was, by recent standards, unusually deep and long. We are now close to the maximum of the subsequent solar cycle, which is relatively weak. In this article we make comparisons between different global (unresolved)…

Solar activity has a cyclic nature with the ~11-year Schwabe cycle dominating its variability on the interannual timescale. However, solar cycles are significantly modulated in length, shape and magnitude, from near-spotless grand minima to…

We analysed the combined data of sunspot groups from Greenwich Photoheliographic Results (GPR) during the period 1874-1976 and Debrecen Photoheliographic Data (DPD) during 1977-2017 and determined the monthly mean, annual mean, and 13-month…

The dynamic activity of stars such as the Sun influences (exo)planetary space environments through modulation of stellar radiation, plasma wind, particle and magnetic fluxes. Energetic stellar phenomena such as flares and coronal mass…

The polar precursor method is widely considered to be the most robust physically motivated method to predict the amplitude of an upcoming solar cycle.It uses indicators of the magnetic field concentrated near the poles around sunspot…

The prediction of the strength of an upcoming solar cycle has been a long-standing challenge in the field of solar physics. The inherent stochastic nature of the underlying solar dynamo makes the strength of the solar cycle vary in a wide…

The magnetic activity of the Sun, as manifested in the sunspot cycle, originates deep within its convection zone through a dynamo mechanism which involves non-trivial interactions between the plasma and magnetic field in the solar interior.…

The magnetic cycle of the Sun, as manifested in the cyclic appearance of sunspots, significantly influences our space environment and space-based technologies by generating what is now termed as space weather. Long-term variation in the…

Total solar irradiance variations, about 0.1% between solar activity maximum and minimum, are available from accurate satellite measurements since 1978 and thus do not provide useful information on longer-term secular trends. Recently,…

The 11-year solar cycle is the dominant pattern of solar activity reflecting the oscillatory dynamo mechanism in the Sun. Solar cycles were directly observed since 1700, while indirect proxies suggest their existence over a much longer…

In this work we predict the maximum amplitude, its time of occurrence, and the total length of Solar Cycle 24 by linear regression to the curvature (second derivative) at the preceding minimum of a smoothed version of the sunspots time…

Various methods (or recipes) have been proposed to predict future solar activity levels - with mixed success. Among these, some precursor methods based upon quantities determined around or a few years before solar minimum have provided…

We discuss a prediction of the solar activity on a short time-scale applying the method based on a combination of a nonlinear mean-field dynamo model and the artificial neural network. The artificial neural network which serves as a…

Using both wavelet and Fourier analysis, a study has been undertaken of the changes in the quasi-periodic variations in solar photospheric fields in the build-up to one of the deepest solar minima experienced in the past 100 years. This…

The solar magnetic activity cycle causes changes in the Sun on timescales that are relevant to human lifetimes. The minimum in solar activity that preceded the current solar cycle (cycle 24) was deeper and quieter than any other recent…

The solar cycle and its associated magnetic activity are the main drivers behind changes in the interplanetary environment and Earth's upper atmosphere (commonly referred to as space weather and climate). In recent years there has been an…