Related papers: a dynamo-based prediction of solar cycle 25

Surface flux transport simulations for the descending phase of cycle 24 using random sources (emerging bipolar magnetic regions) with empirically determined scatter of their properties provide a prediction of the axial dipole moment during…

Human living environment is influenced by intense solar activity. The solar activity exhibits periodicity and regularity. Although many deep-learning models are currently used for solar cycle prediction, most of them are based on a…

Having advanced knowledge of solar activity is important because the Sun's magnetic output governs space weather and impacts technologies reliant on space. However, the irregular nature of the solar cycle makes solar activity predictions a…

With recent advances in the field of machine learning, the use of deep neural networks for time series forecasting has become more prevalent. The quasi-periodic nature of the solar cycle makes it a good candidate for applying time series…

One prominent feature of solar cycle is its irregular variation in its cycle strength, making it challenging to predict the amplitude of the next cycle. Studies show that fluctuations and nonlinearity in generating poloidal field throughout…

Sunspot Cycle 25 over 3 years past the cycle minimum of December 2019. At this point, curve-fitting becomes reliable and consistently indicates a maximum sunspot number of 135+/-10 - slightly larger than Cycle 24's maximum of 116.4, but…

We propose a simple method for prediction of the 11-year solar cycle maximum that is based on two relations. One of them is well known Waldmeier's rule that binds the amplitude of a cycle and the length of its ascending phase. The second…

The linear relationship between the maximum amplitudes (R$_{max}$) of sunspot cycles and preceding minima (R$_{min}$) is one of the precursor methods used to predict the amplitude of the upcoming solar cycle. In the recent past this method…

Further development of the work of Obridko et al. [1] based on recent data confirms the assumption that the 25th cycle of solar activity is a medium-low cycle. Its height is expected to be $125.2\pm5.6$, and the expected date of the maximum…

Solar cycle is modeled as a forced and damped harmonic oscillator and the amplitudes, frequencies, phases and decay factors of such a harmonic oscillator are estimated by non-linear fitting the equation of sinusoidal and transient parts to…

Prediction of the Sun's magnetic activity is important because of its effect on space environment and climate. However, recent efforts to predict the amplitude of the solar cycle have resulted in diverging forecasts with no consensus.…

Solar cycle activity forecasting, mainly its magnitude and timing, is an essential issue for numerous scientific and technological applications: in fact, during an active solar period, many strong eruptions occur on the Sun with increasing…

Forecasting future solar activity has become crucial in our modern world, where intense eruptive phenomena mostly occurring during solar maximum are likely to be strongly damaging to satellites and telecommunications. We present a 4D…

Solar activity and solar wind parameters decreased significantly in solar cycles (SCs) 23-24. In this paper, we analyze solar wind measurements at the rising phase of SC 25 and compare them with similar data from the previous cycles. For…

The maximum of a solar cycle contain two or more peaks, known as Gnevyshev peaks. Studies of this property of solar cycles may help for better understanding the solar dynamo mechanism. We analysed the 13-month smoothed monthly mean…

Sunspot numbers form a comprehensive, long-duration proxy of solar activity and have been used numerous times to empirically investigate the properties of the solar cycle. A number of correlations have been discovered over the 24 cycles for…

We examine the temporal changes in both solar polar magnetic field (PMF) at latitudes $\ge$ $45^{\circ}$ and heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) at 1 AU during solar cycles 21--24 with emphasis on the recent activity changes after July 2015,…

Context. Solar activity cycles vary in amplitude and duration. The variations can be at least partly explained by fluctuations in dynamo parameters. Aims. We want to restrict uncertainty in fluctuating dynamo parameters and find out which…

The maximum amplitude (Rm) of a solar cycle, in the term of mean sunspot numbers, is well-known to be positively correlated with the preceding minimum (Rmin). So far as the long term trend is concerned, a low level of Rmin tends to be…

The prediction of solar activity is important for advanced technologies and space activities. The peak sunspot number (SSN), which can represent the solar activity, has declined continuously in the past four solar cycles (21$-$24), and the…