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Machine maintenance is a challenging operational problem, where the goal is to plan sufficient preventive maintenance to avoid machine failures and overhauls. Maintenance is often imperfect in reality and does not make the asset as good as…
We study the psychological and social impacts of exiting a national anti-poverty campaign, leveraging China's phase-out of its national poverty assistance as a natural experiment. Using a regression discontinuity design, we find that…
We consider hundreds of thousands of individual economic transactions to ask: how predictable are consumers in their merchant visitation patterns? Our results suggest that, in the long-run, much of our seemingly elective activity is…
Nontransitive choices have long been an area of curiosity within economics. However, determining whether nontransitive choices represent an individual's preference is a difficult task since choice data is inherently stochastic. This paper…
This paper develops a framework to study the statistical power of revealed-preference tests. With randomly sampled budgets and mild smoothness of demand, statistical learning implies that any model consistent with the data must approximate…
Macroeconomic factors have a critical impact on banking credit risk, which cannot be directly controlled by banks, and therefore, there is a need for an early credit risk warning system based on the macroeconomy. By comparing different…
This paper aims to explore the application of machine learning in forecasting Chinese macroeconomic variables. Specifically, it employs various machine learning models to predict the quarterly real GDP growth of China, and analyzes the…
To manage citizen evaluations of government performance, public officials use blame avoidance strategies when communicating performance information. We examine two prominent presentational strategies: scapegoating and spinning, while…
International scientific collaboration is organized primarily by researcher-level logic and network dynamics in which scientists seek partners at the frontier of their field with little consideration of national affiliation. Research…
We consider age-structured models with an imposed refractory period between births. These models can be used to formulate alternative population control strategies to China's one-child policy. By allowing any number of births, but with an…
Throughout history, many countries have repeatedly experienced large swings in asset prices, which are usually accompanied by large fluctuations in macroeconomic activity. One of the characteristics of the period before major economic…
Systemic risk arises as a multi-layer network phenomenon. Layers represent direct financial exposures of various types, including interbank liabilities, derivative- or foreign exchange exposures. Another network layer of systemic risk…
The prevalent view in the economics literature is that a high level of infrastructure investment is a precursor to economic growth. China is especially held up as a model to emulate. Based on the largest dataset of its kind, this paper…
The consumers' willingness to pay plays an important role in economic theory and in setting policy. For a market, this function can often be estimated from observed behavior -- preferences are revealed. However, economists would like to…
We examine what happens in a population when it experiences an abrupt change in surrounding conditions. Several cases of such "abrupt transitions" for both physical and living social systems are analyzed from which it can be seen that all…
That science and other domains are now largely data-driven means virtually unlimited opportunities for statisticians. With great power comes responsibility, so it's imperative that statisticians ensure that the methods being developing to…
This paper constructs internationally consistent measures of macroeconomic uncertainty. Our econometric framework extracts uncertainty from revisions in data obtained from standardized national accounts. Applying our model to post-WWII…
Theoretical linguists have suggested that some languages (e.g., Chinese and Japanese) are "cooler" than other languages based on the observation that the intended meaning of phrases in these languages depends more on their contexts. As a…
In China, 260 million people migrate to cities to realize their urban dreams. Despite that these migrants play an important role in the rapid urbanization process, many of them fail to settle down and eventually leave the city. The…
The global balance is a well-known indicator of the behavior of a signed network. Recent literature has introduced the concept of local balance as a measure of the contribution of a single node to the overall balance of the network. In the…