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Assuming some regression model, it is common to study the conditional distribution of survival given covariates. Here, we consider the impact of further conditioning, specifically conditioning on a marginal survival function, known or…
A stylized experiment, the public goods game, has taught us the peculiar reproducible fact that humans tend to contribute more to shared resources than expected from economically rational assumptions. There have been two competing…
This article uses data of subjective Life Satisfaction aggregated to the community level in Canada and examines the spatial interdependencies and spatial spillovers of community happiness. A theoretical model of utility is presented. Using…
When inferring the causal effect of one variable on another from correlational data, a common practice by professional researchers as well as lay decision makers is to control for some set of exogenous confounding variables. Choosing an…
The Translation Tax is often treated as a scalar: translated benchmarks are assumed to inflate scores by preserving English-source cues. We audit this claim in an English-to-Chinese setting. Three proxy estimators disagree: back-translation…
The Chinese approach to developing a world-class science system includes a vigorous set of programmes to attract back Chinese researchers who have overseas training and work experience. No analysis is available to show the performance of…
We study consumption stimulus with digital coupons, which provide time-limited subsidies contingent on minimum spending. We analyze a large-scale program in China and present five main findings: (1) the program generates large short-term…
Central banks rely on density forecasts from professional surveys to assess inflation risks and communicate uncertainty. A central challenge in using these surveys is irregular participation: forecasters enter and exit, skip rounds, and…
Selection on moral hazard represents the tendency to select a specific health insurance coverage depending on the heterogeneity in utilisation ''slopes''. I use data from the Swiss Household Panel and from publicly available regulatory data…
To choose between two discrete goods, a consumer pays attention to only those with prices below a threshold. From these, she chooses her most preferred good. We assume consumers in a population have the same preference but may have…
This paper introduces a rule for policy selection in the presence of estimation uncertainty, explicitly accounting for estimation risk. The rule belongs to the class of risk-aware rules on the efficient decision frontier, characterized as…
We investigate a multi-household DSGE model in which past aggregate consumption impacts the confidence, and therefore consumption propensity, of individual households. We find that such a minimal setup is extremely rich, and leads to a…
The economic consequences of drought episodes are increasingly important, although they are often difficult to apprehend in part because of the complexity of the underlying mechanisms. In this article, we will study one of the consequences…
We empirically investigate the distributional effects of inflation on workers' unemployment tail risks using instrumental variable quantile regression. We find that supply-driven inflation disproportionately raises unemployment tail risks…
Contextual bandits with average-case statistical guarantees are inadequate in risk-averse situations because they might trade off degraded worst-case behaviour for better average performance. Designing a risk-averse contextual bandit is…
We have studied numerically the statistical mechanics of the dynamic phenomena, including money circulation and economic mobility, in some transfer models. The models on which our investigations were performed are the basic model proposed…
Carbon taxes are increasingly popular among policymakers but remain politically contentious. A key challenge relates to their distributional impacts; the extent to which tax burdens differ across population groups. As a response, a growing…
Human behavior is a dynamic process that evolves with experience. Understanding the evolution of individual's risk propensity is critical to design public health interventions to propitiate the adoption of better biosecurity protocols and…
In life-cycle economics the Samuelson paradigm (Samuelson, 1969) states that the optimal investment is in constant proportions out of lifetime wealth composed of current savings and the present value of future income. It is well known that…
We replicate Meissner (2016), where debt aversion was reported for the first time in an intertemporal consumption and saving problem. While Meissner (2016) uses a German sample, our participants are US undergraduate students. All of the…