Related papers: Economic Hysteresis and Its Mathematical Modeling
Trust lies at the crux of most economic transactions, with credit markets being a notable example. Drawing on insights from the literature on coordination games and network growth, we develop a simple model to clarify how trust breaks down…
Following the ideas of L.N.Gumilev, we introduce the mathematical model of ethnogenesis which describes the dynamics of subgroups in the developing polity in terms of ordinary differential equations. The bust dynamics associated with the…
We study the dynamics of a viscoelastic medium driven through quenched disorder by expanding about mean field theory in $6-\epsilon$ dimensions. The model exhibits a critical point separating a region where the dynamics is hysteretic with a…
Systemic risk is a rapidly developing area of research. Classical financial models often do not adequately reflect the phenomena of bubbles, crises, and transitions between them during credit cycles. To study very improbable events,…
An economic model of crime is used to explore the consistent estimation of a simultaneous linear equation without recourse to instrumental variables. A maximum-likelihood procedure (NISE) is introduced, and its results are compared to…
An important task for any large-scale organization is to prepare forecasts of key performance metrics. Often these organizations are structured in a hierarchical manner and for operational reasons, projections of these metrics may have been…
Data describing historical economic growth are analysed. Included in the analysis is the world and regional economic growth. The analysis demonstrates that historical economic growth had a natural tendency to follow hyperbolic…
In all areas of human knowledge, datasets are increasing in both size and complexity, creating the need for richer statistical models. This trend is also true for economic data, where high-dimensional and nonlinear/nonparametric inference…
I sketch a program for a microeconomic theory of the main component of the business cycle as a recurring disequilibrium, driven by incompleteness of the financial market and by information asymmetries between borrowers and lenders. This…
A number of macroeconomic theories, very popular in the 1980s, seem to have completely disappeared and been replaced by the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) approach. We will argue that this replacement is due to a tacit…
We examine the problem of making reconciled forecasts of large collections of related time series through a behavioural/Bayesian lens. Our approach explicitly acknowledges and exploits the 'connectedness' of the series in terms of…
We propose a hysteretic model for electromechanical coupling in piezoelectric materials, with the strain and the electric field as inputs and the stress and the polarization as outputs. This constitutive law satisfies the thermodynamic…
The replication crisis has prompted many to call for statistical reform within the psychological sciences. Here we examine issues within Frequentist statistics that may have led to the replication crisis, and we examine the…
Stacking is a widely used model averaging technique that asymptotically yields optimal predictions among linear averages. We show that stacking is most effective when model predictive performance is heterogeneous in inputs, and we can…
A new mathematical model of hysteresis loop has been derived. Model consists in an extansion of tanh($\cdot$) by extanding the base of exp function into an arbitrary positive number. The presented model is self-similar and invariant with…
This work is an an early stage of a larger project aiming at answering the question whether or not the Preisach map is really fingerprinting magnetic materials. More precisely, we are interested whether Preisach model of magnetic hysteresis…
The paper develops a general methodology for analyzing policies with path-dependency (hysteresis) in stochastic models with forward looking optimizing agents. Our main application is a macro-climate model with a path-dependent climate…
This work presents a simple and robust method to construct a B-spline based Everett map, for application in the Preisach model of hysteresis, to predict static hysteresis behavior. Its strength comes from the ability to directly capture the…
We give a new predictive mathematical model for macroeconomics, which deals specifically with asset prices and earnings fluctuations, in the presence of a dynamic economy involving mergers, acquisitions, and hostile takeovers. Consider a…
Traditional models of macroeconomic dynamics are fundamentally incorrect. The reason lies in a misunderstanding of peculiarities of the analysis of infinitesimal quantities. However, even those types of solutions that are envisaged by the…