Related papers: Economic Hysteresis and Its Mathematical Modeling
Hysteresis is observed at second order phase transitions. Universal scaling formul\ae{} for the areas of hysteresis loops are written down. Critical exponents are defined, and related to other exponents for static and dynamic critical…
Regression plays a key role in many research areas and its variable selection is a classic and major problem. This study emphasizes cost of predictors to be purchased for future use, when we select a subset of them. Its economic aspect is…
Classical economics has developed an arsenal of methods, based on the idea of representative agents, to come up with precise numbers for next year's GDP, inflation and exchange rates, among (many) other things. Few, however, will disagree…
The present work aims at describing hysteresis behaviour arising from cyclic bending experiments on cables by means of the Preisach operator. Pure bending experiments conducted in previous work show that slender structures such as electric…
Many-body systems can have multiple equilibria. Though the energy of equilibria might be the same, still systems may resist to switch from an unfavored equilibrium to a favored one. In this paper we investigate occurrence of such phenomenon…
We identify a mechanism for a type of hysteresis which we predict to occur in a variety of depinning transitions. We show that the phenomenon of one-way hysteresis is generic to stress-overshoot models of the depinning transition, and we…
Economic evaluations from individual-level data are an important component of the process of technology appraisal, with a view to informing resource allocation decisions. A critical problem in these analyses is that both effectiveness and…
We consider gradient systems with an increasing potential that depends on a scalar parameter. As the parameter is varied, critical points of the potential can be eliminated or created through saddle-node bifurcations causing the system to…
This is a review article of our work on hysteresis, avalanches, and criticality. We provide an extensive introduction to scaling and renormalization--group ideas, and discuss analytical and numerical results for size distributions,…
A state-space formulation of classical scalar Preisach model (CSPM) of hysteresis is proposed. The introduced state dynamics and memory interface allow to use the state equation, which is rapid in calculation, instead of the original…
The correctness of Harrods model in the differential form is studied. The inadequacy of exponential growth of economy is shown; an alternative result is obtained. By example of Phillips model, an approach to correction of macroeconomic…
A disordered spin glass model where both static and dynamical properties depend on macroscopic magnetizations is presented. These magnetizations interact via random couplings and, therefore, the typical quenched realization of the system…
The Bayesian statistical paradigm provides a principled and coherent approach to probabilistic forecasting. Uncertainty about all unknowns that characterize any forecasting problem -- model, parameters, latent states -- is able to be…
The seriousness of the current crisis urgently demands new economic thinking that breaks the austerity vs. deficit spending circle in economic policy. The core tenet of the paper is that the most important problems that natural and social…
This article is a follow-up of a short essay that appeared in Nature 455, 1181 (2008) [arXiv:0810.5306]. It has become increasingly clear that the erratic dynamics of markets is mostly endogenous and not due to the rational processing of…
The correctness of Harrods model in the differential form is studied. The inadequacy of exponential growth of economy is shown; an alternative result is obtained. By example of Phillips model, an approach to correction of macroeconomic…
This is an epistemological approach to errors in both inference and risk management, leading to necessary structural properties for the probability distribution. Many mechanisms have been used to show the emergence of fat tails. Here we…
Counterfactual explanations utilize feature perturbations to analyze the outcome of an original decision and recommend an actionable recourse. We argue that it is beneficial to provide several alternative explanations rather than a single…
This paper develops a new model of business cycles. The model is economical in that it is solved with an aggregate demand-aggregate supply diagram, and the effects of shocks and policies are obtained by comparative statics. The model builds…
The aim of this paper is to present the technique (and its linkage with physics) of overcoming problems connected to modeling social structures, which are typically hierarchical. Hierarchical Linear Models provide a conceptual and…