Related papers: Economic Hysteresis and Its Mathematical Modeling
Inverse problems, where in broad sense the task is to learn from the noisy response about some unknown function, usually represented as the argument of some known functional form, has received wide attention in the general scientific…
We report a surprising hysteretic behavior in the dynamics of a simple one-dimensional nonlinear model inspired by the tribological problem of two sliding surfaces with a thin solid lubricant layer in between. In particular, we consider the…
This article proposes predictive economics as a distinct analytical perspective within economics, grounded in machine learning and centred on predictive accuracy rather than causal identification. Drawing on the instrumentalist tradition…
In this paper, we study the price responsiveness of electricity consumption from empirical commercial and industrial load data obtained from Texas. Employing a dynamical system perspective, we show that price responsive demand can be…
The ongoing replication crisis in science has increased interest in the methodology of replication studies. We propose a novel Bayesian analysis approach using power priors: The likelihood of the original study's data is raised to the power…
Branching processes are models used to describe populations that reproduce and die over time. In the classical setting, an individual's reproductive capacity remains constant throughout its lifetime. However, in real-world situations,…
The dynamical behavior of a kind of models with hierarchically constrained dynamics is investigated. The models exhibit many properties resembling real structural glasses. In particular, we focus on the study of time-dependent temperature…
Symbolic regression automates the process of learning closed-form mathematical models from data. Standard approaches to symbolic regression, as well as newer deep learning approaches, rely on heuristic model selection criteria, heuristic…
Financial and economic history is strewn with bubbles and crashes, booms and busts, crises and upheavals of all sorts. Understanding the origin of these events is arguably one of the most important problems in economic theory. In this…
The branching process is the minimal model for propagation dynamics, avalanches and criticality, broadly used in neuroscience. A simple extension of it, adding inhibitory nodes, induces a much-richer phenomenology, including, an…
In the General Theory, Keynes remarked that the economy's state depends on expectations, and that these expectations can be subject to sudden swings. In this work, we develop a multiple equilibria behavioural business cycle model that can…
We introduce a general theoretical scheme for a class of phenomena characterized by an extremal dynamics and quenched disorder. The approach is based on a transformation of the quenched dynamics into a stochastic one with cognitive memory…
The use of equilibrium models in economics springs from the desire for parsimonious models of economic phenomena that take human reasoning into account. This approach has been the cornerstone of modern economic theory. We explain why this…
An heuristic model of the society, as an assembly of weakly interacting individuals, is discussed. The model allows to connect macroscopic phenomena with features of relations between individuals. Addressing to the problem of inequality, a…
We present a simple model of communication in networks with hierarchical branching. We analyze the behavior of the model from the viewpoint of critical systems under different situations. For certain values of the parameters, a continuous…
Consider the problem of modeling hysteresis for finite-state random walks using higher-order Markov chains. This Letter introduces a Bayesian framework to determine, from data, the number of prior states of recent history upon which a…
Confirmation bias is a cognitive bias that adversely affects management decisions, and mathematical modelling is an aid to its detailed understanding. Bias in opinion update about the value of a parameter is modelled here assuming that…
We study the dynamic response of driven systems in the presence of quenched disorder. A simple heuristic model for hysteretic creep of elastic manifolds is proposed and evaluated numerically. It provides a qualitative explanation of the…
Whereas "convexification by aggregation" is a well-understood procedure in mathematical economics, "convexification by randomization" has largely been limited to theories of statistical decision-making, optimal control and non-cooperative…
It has been shown that some macroeconomic time series, especially those where outliers could be present, can be well modelled using heavy tailed distributions for the noise components. Methods for deciding when and where heavy-tailed models…