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It is common to conduct causal inference in matched observational studies by proceeding as though treatment assignments within matched sets are assigned uniformly at random and using this distribution as the basis for inference. This…
We present two Monte Carlo sampling algorithms for probabilistic inference that guarantee polynomial-time convergence for a larger class of network than current sampling algorithms provide. These new methods are variants of the known…
This paper proposes a novel, nonparametric, interpoint distance-based measure to investigate whether there exist any groups in a set of given data, and if so then, how many groups are prevailing in total. It is a cluster accuracy index…
Background: The standard regulatory approach to assess replication success is the two-trials rule, requiring both the original and the replication study to be significant with effect estimates in the same direction. The sceptical p-value…
In genetic association studies, detecting disease-genotype associations is a primary goal. For most diseases, the underlying genetic model is unknown, and we study seven robust test statistics for monotone association. For a given test…
Paired cluster-randomized experiments (pCRTs) are common across many disciplines because there is often natural clustering of individuals, and paired randomization can help balance baseline covariates to improve experimental precision.…
This paper studies the construction of p-values for nonparametric outlier detection, taking a multiple-testing perspective. The goal is to test whether new independent samples belong to the same distribution as a reference data set or are…
Unsupervised clustering algorithms for vectors has been widely used in the area of machine learning. Many applications, including the biological data we studied in this paper, contain some boundary datapoints which show combination…
A well-known metric for quantifying the similarity between two clusterings is the adjusted mutual information. Compared to mutual information, a corrective term based on random permutations of the labels is introduced, preventing two…
It is common when using cross-section or panel data to assign each observation to a cluster and allow for arbitrary patterns of heteroskedasticity and correlation within clusters. For regression models, there are many ways to make…
If the same data is used for both clustering and for testing a null hypothesis that is formulated in terms of the estimated clusters, then the traditional hypothesis testing framework often fails to control the Type I error. Gao et al.…
Multifidelity Monte Carlo methods often rely on a preprocessing phase consisting of standard Monte Carlo sampling to estimate correlation coefficients between models of different fidelity to determine the weights and number of samples for…
Testing composite null hypotheses arises in various applications, such as mediation and replicability analyses. The problem becomes more challenging in high-throughput experiments where tens of thousands of features are examined…
It is common to show the confidence intervals or $p$-values of selected features, or predictor variables in regression, but they often involve selection bias. The selective inference approach solves this bias by conditioning on the…
Increasing test-time computation is a straightforward approach to enhancing the quality of responses in Large Language Models (LLMs). While Best-of-N sampling and Self-Consistency with majority voting are simple and effective, they require…
In real data, missing values occur frequently, which affects the interpretation with interpretable machine learning (IML) methods. Recent work considers bias and shows that model explanations may differ between imputation methods, while…
We study a statistical framework for replicability based on a recently proposed quantitative measure of replication success, the sceptical $p$-value. A recalibration is proposed to obtain exact overall Type-I error control if the effect is…
Empirical research in the social and medical sciences frequently involves testing multiple hypotheses simultaneously, increasing the risk of false positives due to chance. Classical multiple testing procedures, such as the Bonferroni…
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed for tabular question answering, yet calibration on structured data is largely unstudied. This paper presents the first systematic comparison of five confidence estimation methods across…
This paper introduces a kernel discrepancy-based framework for rerandomization to enhance the precision of causal inference in controlled experiments. We demonstrate that the kernel discrepancy is the key part of the variance upper bound…