Related papers: Parisian ruin probability for two-dimensional Brow…
We investigate, focusing on the ruin probability, an adaptation of the Cramer-Lundberg model for the surplus process of an insurance company, in which, conditionally on their intensities, the two mixed Poisson processes governing the…
Drawdowns measuring the decline in value from the historical running maxima over a given period of time, are considered as extremal events from the standpoint of risk management. To date, research on the topic has mainly focus on the side…
We study the probability of ruin before time $t$ for the family of tempered stable L\'evy insurance risk processes, which includes the spectrally positive inverse Gaussian processes. Numerical approximations of the ruin time distribution…
This paper addresses the question of how Brownian-like motion can arise from the solution of a deterministic differential delay equation. To study this we analytically study the bifurcation properties of an apparently simple differential…
This paper considers general term structure models like the ones appearing in portfolio credit risk modelling or life insurance. We give a general model starting from families of forward rates driven by infinitely many Brownian motions and…
Modelling of multiple simultaneous failures in insurance, finance and other areas of applied probability is important especially from the point of view of pandemic-type events. A benchmark limiting model for the analysis of multiple…
We find the optimal investment strategy in a Black-Scholes market to minimize the probability of so-called {\it lifetime exponential Parisian ruin}, that is, the probability that wealth exhibits an excursion below zero of an exponentially…
We study the closure properties of the class of Bivariate Regular Variation, symbolically BRV , in standard and nonstandard cases, with respect to the randomly weighted sums. However, we take into consideration a weak dependence structure…
Let \(\mathbf B(t)=(B_1(t), \dots,B_d(t))^\top\), \(t\in[0,T]\), \(d\geq 2\) be a \(d\)-dimensional Brownian motion with independent components and let \(\mathbf \eta=(\eta_1,\dots,\eta_d)^\top\) be a random vector independent of \(\mathbf…
Let $S_n$ be partial sums of an i.i.d. sequence $\{X_i\}$. We assume that $\mathbb{E} X_1 <0$ and $\mathbb{P}[X_1>0]>0$. In this paper we study the first passage time $$ \tau_u = \inf\{n:\; S_n > u\}. $$ The classical Cram\'er's estimate of…
This paper derives an exact asymptotic expression for \[ \mathbb{P}_{\mathbf{x}_u}\{\exists_{t\ge0} \mathbf{X}(t)- \boldsymbol{\mu}t\in \mathcal{U} \}, \ \ {\rm as}\ \ u\to\infty, \] where $\mathbf{X}(t)=(X_1(t),\ldots,X_d(t))^\top,t\ge0$…
We develop sharp large deviation asymptotics for the probability of ruin in a Markov-dependent stochastic economic environment and study the extremes for some related Markovian processes which arise in financial and insurance mathematics,…
Applying excursion theory, we re-express several well studied fluctuation quantities associated to Parisian ruin problem for L\'evy risk processes in terms of integrals with respect to excursion measure for spectrally negative L\'evy…
In this work, we consider extensions of the dual risk model with proportional gains by introducing a dependence structure between gain sizes and gain interrarrival times. Among others, we further consider the case where the proportional…
In this paper, we study finite-time ruin probabilities for the compound Markov binomial risk model - a discrete-time model where claim sizes are modulated by a finite-state ergodic Markov chain. In the classic (non-modulated) case, the risk…
We reconsider a classical, well-studied problem from applied probability. This is the max-sum equivalence of randomly weighted sums, and the originality is because we manage to include interdependence among the primary random variables, as…
In this paper, we study two optimisation settings for an insurance company, under the constraint that the terminal surplus at a deterministic and finite time $T$ follows a normal distribution with a given mean and a given variance. In both…
This paper concerns an optimal impulse control problem associated with a refracted L\'{e}vy process, involving the reduction of reserves to a predetermined level whenever they exceed a specified threshold. The ruin time is determined by…
We consider in this paper a general two-sided jump-diffusion risk model that allows for risky investments as well as for correlation between the two Brownian motions driving insurance risk and investment return. We first introduce the model…
We study a rational expectation model of bubbles and crashes. The model has two components : (1) our key assumption is that a crash may be caused by local self-reinforcing imitation between noise traders. If the tendency for noise traders…