Related papers: Shall we count the living or the dead?

Suppose, contrary to fact, in 1950, we had put the cohort of 18 year old non-smoking American men on a stringent mandatory diet that guaranteed that no one would ever weigh more than their baseline weight established at age 18. How would…

Yager[5] proposed a transformation for opposing(negating) the occurence of an event that is not certain using the idea that one can oppose the occurence of any uncertain event by allocating its probability among the other outcomes in the…

In this paper, we propose a framework for achieving long-term fair sequential decision making. By conducting both the hard and soft interventions, we propose to take path-specific effects on the time-lagged causal graph as a quantitative…

For marginal structural models, which recently play an important role in causal inference, we consider a model selection problem in the framework of a semiparametric approach using inverse-probability-weighted estimation or doubly robust…

The conventional nonparametric tests in survival analysis, such as the log-rank test, assess the null hypothesis that the hazards are equal at all times. However, hazards are hard to interpret causally, and other null hypotheses are more…

In this article we have successfully obtained an exact solution of a particular case of SIR and SIS epidemic models given by Kermack and Mckendrick [1] for constant population, which are described by coupled nonlinear differential…

The attributable risk, often called the population attributable risk, is in many epidemiological contexts a more relevant measure of exposure-disease association than the excess risk, relative risk, or odds ratio. When estimating…

Chronic diseases are long-lasting conditions that require lifelong medical attention. Using big EMR data, we have developed early disease risk prediction models for five common chronic diseases: diabetes, hypertension, CKD, COPD, and…

Mortality displacement is the concept that deaths are moved forward in time (e.g., a few days, several months, and years) by exposure from when they would occur without the exposure, which is common in environmental time-series studies.…

Mendelian randomization (MR) considers using genetic variants as instrumental variables (IVs) to infer causal effects in observational studies. However, the validity of causal inference in MR can be compromised when the IVs are potentially…

The Randall-Sundrum (RS) model, based on a slice of warped 5D spacetime, was originally introduced to explain the apparent hierarchy between the scales of weak and gravitational interactions. Over the past decade, this model has been…

Separate modelling of cause specific mortality rates and their projections can yield inconsistent forecasts when the sum of deaths by cause does not match the total observed in a population. We develop a hierarchical probabilistic framework…

We consider first the mixed discrete-continuous scheme of observation in multistate models; this is a classical pattern in epidemiology because very often clinical status is assessed at discrete visit times while times of death or other…

We establish connections between the absorption probabilities of a class of birth-death processes with killing, and the stationary tail of a related class of birth-death processes with catastrophes. The major ingredients of the proofs are a…

The notion of stochastic precedence between two random variables emerges as a relevant concept in several fields of applied probability. When one consider a vector of random variables $X_1,...,X_n$, this notion has a preeminent role in the…

In his Ph.D. thesis, Ira Gessel proved a reciprocity formula for noncommutative symmetric functions which enables one to count words and permutations with restrictions on the lengths of their increasing runs. We generalize Gessel's theorem…

Identifying causal relationships for a treatment intervention is a fundamental problem in health sciences. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are considered the gold standard for identifying causal relationships. However, recent…

For a portfolio of life insurance policies observed for a stated period of time, e.g., one year, mortality is typically a rare event. When we examine the outcome of dying or not from such portfolios, we have an imbalanced binary response.…

This paper is about how we study statistical methods. As an example, it uses the random regressions model, in which the intercept and slope of cluster-specific regression lines are modeled as a bivariate random effect. Maximizing this…

A solution to control for nonresponse bias consists of multiplying the design weights of respondents by the inverse of estimated response probabilities to compensate for the nonrespondents. Maximum likelihood and calibration are two…