Related papers: Shall we count the living or the dead?
This paper revisits the classical problem of determining the bias of a weighted coin, where the bias is known to be either $p = 1/2 + \varepsilon$ or $p = 1/2 - \varepsilon$, while minimizing the expected number of coin tosses and the error…
Some years ago, Snapinn and Jiang[1] considered the interpretation and pitfalls of absolute versus relative treatment effect measures in analyses of time-to-event outcomes. Through specific examples and analytical considerations based…
Representative risk estimation is fundamental to clinical decision-making. However, risks are often estimated from non-representative epidemiologic studies, which usually underrepresent minorities. "Model-based" methods use population…
Gorman and Bedrick (2019) argued for using random splits rather than standard splits in NLP experiments. We argue that random splits, like standard splits, lead to overly optimistic performance estimates. We can also split data in biased or…
Different ways of calculating mortality ratios during epidemics have yielded very different results, particularly during the current COVID-19 pandemic. We formulate both a survival probability model and an associated infection…
Probit regression was first proposed by Bliss in 1934 to study mortality rates of insects. Since then, an extensive body of work has analyzed and used probit or related binary regression methods (such as logistic regression) in numerous…
The EU Solvency II directive recommends insurance companies to pay more attention to the risk management methods. The sense of risk management is the ability to quantify risk and apply methods that reduce uncertainty. In life insurance, the…
Analysis of 2 by 2 tables and two-sample survival data has been widely used. Exact calculation is computational intractable for conditional likelihood inference in odds ratio models with large marginals in 2 by 2 tables, or partial…
There have been significant efforts devoted to solving the longevity risk given that a continuous growth in population ageing has become a severe issue for many developed countries over the past few decades. The Cairns-Blake-Dowd (CBD)…
A very classical problem in statistics is to test the stochastic superiority of one distribution to another. However, many existing approaches are developed for independent samples and, moreover, do not take censored data into account. We…
We present a basis for studying questions of cause and effect in statistics which subsumes and reconciles the models proposed by Pearl, Robins, Rubin and others, and which, as far as mathematical notions and notation are concerned, is…
Widespread population aging has made it critical to understand death rates at old ages. However, studying mortality at old ages is challenging because the data are sparse: numbers of survivors and deaths get smaller and smaller with age. We…
The stable matching problem has been the subject of intense theoretical and empirical study since the seminal 1962 paper by Gale and Shapley. The number of stable matchings for different systems of preferences has been studied in many…
Health data are often not symmetric to be adequately modeled through the usual normal distributions; most of them exhibit skewed patterns. They can indeed be modeled better through the larger family of skew-normal distributions covering…
We consider asymptotic normality of linear rank statistics under various randomization rules met in clinical trials and designed for patients' allocation into treatment and placebo arms. Exposition relies on some general limit theorem due…
A central issue in ecology today is that of the factors determining the relative abundance of species within a natural community. The proper application of the principles of statistical physics to the problem of species abundance…
In this expository paper, we consider the problem of causal inference and efficient estimation for the counterfactual survivor function. This problem has previously been considered in the literature in several papers, each relying on the…
In this paper we develop the theory of how to count, in thin concurrent games, the configurations of a strategy witnessing that it reaches a certain configuration of the game. This plays a central role in many recent developments in…
The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) is the single largest and most detailed scientific effort ever conducted to quantify levels and trends in health. This global health model to estimate mortality rates and…
Generalization methods offer a powerful solution to one of the key drawbacks of randomized controlled trials (RCTs): their limited representativeness. By enabling the transport of treatment effect estimates to target populations subject to…