Related papers: Shall we count the living or the dead?
Several authors have explained that the likelihood ratio measures the strength of the evidence represented by observations in statistical problems. This idea works fine when the goal is to evaluate the strength of the available evidence for…
Compartmental models are popular in the mathematics of epidemiology for their simplicity and wide range of applications. Although they are typically solved as initial value problems for a system of ordinary differential equations, the…
We consider a branching random walk in a random space-time environment of disasters where each particle is killed when meeting a disaster. This extends the model of the "random walk in a disastrous random environment" introduced by [15]. We…
We study the switch distribution, introduced by Van Erven et al. (2012), applied to model selection and subsequent estimation. While switching was known to be strongly consistent, here we show that it achieves minimax optimal parametric…
Survival models are a popular tool for the analysis of time to event data with applications in medicine, engineering, economics, and many more. Advances like the Cox proportional hazard model have enabled researchers to better describe…
Recent work has focused attention on statistical inference for the population distribution of the number of sexual partners based on survey data. The characteristics of these distributions are of interest as components of mathematical…
Probabilistic survival predictions from models trained with Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) can have high, and sometimes unacceptably high variance. The field of meteorology, where the paradigm of maximizing sharpness subject to…
This paper presents an approach to incorporate mortality shocks into mortality projections produced by a stochastic multi-population mortality model. The proposed model combines a decreasing stochastic mortality trend with a…
Our approach to Mendelian Randomization (MR) analysis is designed to increase reproducibility of causal effect "discoveries" by: (i) using a Bayesian approach to inference; (ii) replacing the point null hypothesis with a region of practical…
In randomized experiments, treatment and control groups should be roughly the same--balanced--in their distributions of pretreatment variables. But how nearly so? Can descriptive comparisons meaningfully be paired with significance tests?…
We obtain a Central Limit Theorem for the normalized number of real roots of a square Kostlan-Shub-Smale random polynomial system of any size as the degree goes to infinity. A study of the asymptotic variance of the number of roots is…
In Chib (1995), a method for approximating marginal densities in a Bayesian setting is proposed, with one proeminent application being the estimation of the number of components in a normal mixture. As pointed out in Neal (1999) and…
We introduce a new type of Mean Field Game epidemiological models, in which subpopulations have different behavioral patterns: some are viewed as "highly rational" (choosing Nash-equilibrium long-term strategies) while others follow…
It has been a long time issue in statistical physics how to combine reversible microscopic equations with irreversible macroscopic behavior. Recently, Evans and Searles have suggested causality as the key concept for a solution to the…
Competing risks occur in survival analysis when multiple causes of death are present. They play a prominent role in several domains extending beyond biostatistics to encompass epidemiology, actuarial sciences, and reliability theory. This…
Ratios of random variables often appear in probability and statistical applications. We aim to approximate the moments of such ratios under several dependence assumptions. Extending the ideas in Collomb [C. R. Acad. Sci. Paris 285 (1977)…
We defend a new theory of statistical evidence, which we call Robust Bayesianism (RB). We prove that, under widely accepted assumptions, RB entails the law of likelihood [Royall, 1997], the likelihood principle [Berger and Wolpert, 1988],…
Since Downs proposed that the act of voting is irrational in 1957, myriad models have been proposed to explain voting and account for observed turnout patterns. We propose a model in which partisans consider both the instrumental and…
Estimating the prevalence of a medical condition, or the proportion of the population in which it occurs, is a fundamental problem in healthcare and public health. Accurate estimates of the relative prevalence across groups -- capturing,…
Relative survival represents the preferred framework for the analysis of population cancer survival data. The aim is to model the survival probability associated to cancer in the absence of information about the cause of death. Recent data…