Related papers: Responses to COVID-19 with Probabilistic Programmi…

We develop a multiple-events model and exploit within and between country variation in the timing, type and level of intensity of various public policies to study their dynamic effects on the daily incidence of COVID-19 and on population…

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as quarantine, self-isolation, social distancing, and virus-contact tracing can greatly reduce the spread of the virus during a pandemic. In the wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries have…

Cost-effectiveness analysis is a mode of determining both the cost and economic health outcomes of one or more control interventions. In this work, we have formulated a non-autonomous nonlinear deterministic model to study the control of…

The COVID-19 pandemic has plagued the world for months. The U.S. has taken measures to counter it. On a daily basis, newly confirmed cases have been reported. In the early days, these numbers showed an increasing trend. Recently, the…

The COVID-19 pandemic has forced policy makers to decree urgent confinements to stop a rapid and massive contagion. However, after that stage, societies are being forced to find an equilibrium between the need to reduce contagion rates and…

There is a continuing debate on relative benefits of various mitigation and suppression strategies aimed to control the spread of COVID-19. Here we report the results of agent-based modelling using a fine-grained computational simulation of…

A novel coronavirus disease has emerged (later named COVID-19) and caused the world to enter a new reality, with many direct and indirect factors influencing it. Some are human-controllable (e.g. interventional policies, mobility and the…

During the COVID-19 pandemic, many organizations (e.g. businesses, companies, government facilities, etc.) have attempted to reduce infection risk by employing partial home office strategies. However, working from home can also reduce…

While many efforts are currently devoted to vaccines development and administration, social distancing measures, including severe restrictions such as lockdowns, remain fundamental tools to contain the spread of COVID-19. A crucial point…

In this work, we simulate the COVID-19 pandemic dynamics in a population modeled as a network of groups wherein infection can propagate both via intra-group and via inter-group interactions. Our results emphasize the importance of…

Mathematical modeling has been fundamental to achieving near real-time accurate forecasts of the spread of COVID-19. Similarly, the design of non-pharmaceutical interventions has played a key role in the application of policies to contain…

Understanding how to effectively control an epidemic spreading on a network is a problem of paramount importance for the scientific community. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for policies that mitigate the spread,…

Pandemic response is a complex affair. Most governments employ a set of quasi-standard measures to fight COVID-19 including wearing masks, social distancing, virus testing and contact tracing. We argue that some non-trivial factors behind…

COVID-19 remains a challenging global threat with ongoing waves of infections and clinical disease which have resulted millions of deaths and an enormous strain on health systems worldwide. Effective vaccines have been developed for the…

An epidemiological compartmental model was used to simulate social distancing strategies to contain the COVID-19 pandemic and prevent a second wave in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Optimization using genetic algorithm was used to determine the optimal…

We evaluate the efficiency of various heuristic strategies for allocating vaccines against COVID-19 and compare them to strategies found using optimal control theory. Our approach is based on a mathematical model which tracks the spread of…

A computational methodology is introduced to minimize infection opportunities for people suffering some degree of lockdown in response to a pandemic, as is the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. Persons use their mobile phone or computational device…

Addressed in this work is the performance of five popular algorithms, which aim at assessing the dissemination dynamics of the COVID-19 disease on the basis of the time series of new confirmed cases. The tests are based on simulated data,…

A number of models in mathematical epidemiology have been developed to account for control measures such as vaccination or quarantine. However, COVID-19 has brought unprecedented social distancing measures, with a challenge on how to…

During the Covid-19 pandemic a key role is played by vaccination to combat the virus. There are many possible policies for prioritizing vaccines, and different criteria for optimization: minimize death, time to herd immunity, functioning of…