Related papers: Responses to COVID-19 with Probabilistic Programmi…

A mathematical model for the COVID-19 pandemic spread, which integrates age-structured Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Deceased dynamics with real mobile phone data accounting for the population mobility, is presented. The dynamical…

Analysis of policies for managing epidemics require simultaneously an economic and epidemiological perspective. We adopt a cost-of-policy framework to model both the virus spread and the cost of handling the pandemic. Because it is harder…

Vaccination has played an important role in preventing the spread of infectious diseases. However, the limited availability of vaccines and personnel at the roll-out of a new vaccine and the costs of vaccination campaigns often limit how…

Epidemics and pandemics have ravaged human life since time. To combat these, novel ideas have always been created and deployed by humanity, with varying degrees of success. At this very moment, the COVID-19 pandemic is the singular global…

The rapid spread of COVID-19 in the United States has imposed a major threat to public health, the real economy, and human well-being. With the absence of effective vaccines, the preventive actions of social distancing and travel reduction…

COVID-19 pandemic is severely impacting the lives of billions across the globe. Even after taking massive protective measures like nation-wide lockdowns, discontinuation of international flight services, rigorous testing etc., the infection…

COVID-19 was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) on March 11th, 2020. With half of the world's countries in lockdown as of April due to this pandemic, monitoring and understanding the spread of the virus and infection…

We have established a novel mathematical model that considers various aspects of the spreading of the virus, including, the transmission based on being in the latent period, environment to human transmission, governmental decisions, and…

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected all countries of the world producing a substantial number of fatalities accompanied by a major disruption in their social, financial, and educational organization. The strict disciplinary measures…

The COVID-19 pandemic has completely disrupted the operation of our societies. Its elusive transmission process, characterized by an unusually long incubation period, as well as a high contagion capacity, has forced many countries to take…

In the absence of any available vaccines or drugs, prevention of the spread of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is being achieved by putting many mitigation measures in place. It is indispensable to have robust and reliable ways…

Following the emergence of a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) and its spread outside of China, Europe has experienced large epidemics. In response, many European countries have implemented unprecedented non-pharmaceutical interventions…

Coronavirus COVID-19 spreads through the population mostly based on social contact. To gauge the potential for widespread contagion, to cope with associated uncertainty and to inform its mitigation, more accurate and robust modelling is…

An epidemic carries human and fiscal costs. In the case of imported pandemics, the first-best solution is to restrict national borders to identify and isolate infected individuals. However, when that opportunity is not fully seized and…

The spread of COVID-19 during the initial phase of the first half of 2020 was curtailed to a larger or lesser extent through measures of social distancing imposed by most countries. In this work, we link directly, through machine learning…

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is the first epidemic in human history in which digital contact-tracing has been deployed at a global scale. Tracking and quarantining all the contacts of individuals who test positive to a virus can help…

We introduce a theoretical framework that highlights the impact of physical distancing variables such as human mobility and physical proximity on the evolution of epidemics and, crucially, on the reproduction number. In particular, in…

The spread of COVID-19 makes it essential to investigate its prevalence. In such investigation research, as far as we know, the widely-used sampling methods didn't use the information sufficiently about the numbers of the previously…

The death toll for Covid-19 may be reduced by dividing the population into two classes, the vulnerable and the fit, with different lockdown regimes. Instead of one reproduction number there now are four parameters. These make it possible to…

The outbreak of COVID-19 since Dec. 2019 has caused severe life and economic damage worldwide, many countries are trapped by medical resource constraints or absence of targeted therapeutics, and therefore the implement of systemic policies…