Related papers: Rare extinction events in cyclic predator-prey gam…
We consider importance sampling for estimating the probability that a light-tailed $d$-dimensional random walk exits through one of many disjoint rare-event regions before reaching an anticipated target. This problem arises in sequential…
The importance of the Allee effect in studying extinction vulnerability is widely recognized by researchers, and neglecting it could adversely impact the management of threatened or exploited populations [1]. In this article, we examine a…
Cyclic dominant systems, like rock-paper-scissors game, are frequently used to explain biodiversity in nature, where mobility, reproduction and intransitive competition are on stage to provide the coexistence of competitors. A significantly…
We consider a stochastic population model where the intrinsic or demographic noise causes cycling between states before the population eventually goes extinct. A master equation approach coupled with a WKB (Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin)…
Rare events in the first-passage distributions of jump processes are capable of triggering anomalous reactions or series of events. Estimating their probability is particularly important when the jump probabilities have broad-tailed…
We study a lattice model of a multi-species prey-predator system. Numerical results show that for a small mutation rate the model develops irregular long-period oscillatory behavior with sizeable changes in a number of species. The…
In this paper we develop a perturbation method to predict the rate of occurrence of rare events for singularly perturbed stochastic systems using a probability density function approach. In contrast to a stochastic normal form approach, we…
We compare and contrast the long-time dynamical properties of two individual-based models of biological coevolution. Selection occurs via multispecies, stochastic population dynamics with reproduction probabilities that depend nonlinearly…
We analyze purely competitive many-species Lotka-Volterra systems with random interaction matrices, focusing the attention on statistical properties of their asymptotic states. Generic features of the evolution are outlined from a…
In evolutionary game dynamics, reproductive success increases with the performance in an evolutionary game. If strategy $A$ performs better than strategy $B$, strategy $A$ will spread in the population. Under stochastic dynamics, a single…
The Battle of the Sexes describes asymmetric conflicts in mating behavior of males and females. Males can be philanderer or faithful, while females are either fast or coy, leading to a cyclic dynamics. The adjusted replicator equation…
Sexually reproducing populations with small number of individuals may go extinct by stochastic fluctuations in sex determination, causing all their members to become male or female in a generation. In this work we calculate the time to…
The contribution of this paper is to introduce change of measure based techniques for the rare-event analysis of heavy-tailed stochastic processes. Our changes-of-measure are parameterized by a family of distributions admitting a mixture…
In recent years non-demographic variability has been shown to greatly affect dynamics of stochastic populations. For example, non-demographic noise in the form of a bursty reproduction process with an a-priori unknown burst size, or…
Atypical, rare trajectories of dynamical systems are important: they are often the paths for chemical reactions, the haven of (relative) stability of planetary systems, the rogue waves that are detected in oil platforms, the structures that…
In this paper, we develop a method of analyzing long transient dynamics in a class of predator-prey models with two species of predators competing explicitly for their common prey, where the prey evolves on a faster timescale than the…
The extinction time of an isolated population can be exponentially reduced by a periodic modulation of its environment. We investigate this effect using, as an example, a stochastic branching-annihilation process with a time-dependent…
In this study, we investigate the dynamics of a spatial and non spatial prey-predator interaction model that includes the following: (i) fear effect incorporated in prey birth rate; (ii) group defence of prey against predators; and (iii)…
In this paper, we formulate a stochastic logistic fish growth model driven by both white noise and non-Gaussian noise. We focus our study on the mean time to extinction, escape probability to measure the noise-induced extinction probability…
Extinction appears ubiquitously in many fields, including chemical reactions, population biology, evolution, and epidemiology. Even though extinction as a random process is a rare event, its occurrence is observed in large finite…