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We show how one can actually take advantage of the strongly non-Gaussian nature of the fluctuations of financial assets to simplify the calculation of the Value-at-Risk of complex non linear portfolios. The resulting equations are not hard…

Condensed Matter · Physics 2007-05-23 Jean-Philippe Bouchaud , Marc Potters

We describe a simple method for making inference on a functional of a multivariate distribution. The method is based on a copula representation of the multivariate distribution and it is based on the properties of an Approximate Bayesian…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-07-18 Clara Grazian , Brunero Liseo

We introduce a faithful representation of the heavy tail multivariate distribution of asset returns, as parsimonous as the Gaussian framework. Using calculation techniques of functional integration and Feynman diagrams borrowed from…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2008-12-02 D. Sornette , J. V. Andersen , P. Simonetti

A new methodology is proposed to approximate the time-dependent house price distribution at a fine regional scale using Gaussian mixtures. The means, variances and weights of the mixture components are related to time, location and dwelling…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-04-09 Willem P Sijp , Anastasios Panagiotelis

Accurately assessing financial risk requires capturing both individual asset volatility and the complex, asymmetric dependence structures that emerge during extreme market events. While modern diffusion-based models have advanced…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-20 David Huk , Dongshan Wang , Miha Bresar

We present a quantum algorithm for European option pricing in finance, where the key idea is to work in the unary representation of the asset value. The algorithm needs novel circuitry and is divided in three parts: first, the amplitude…

A mixture of experts models the conditional density of a response variable using a mixture of regression models with covariate-dependent mixture weights. We extend the finite mixture of experts model by allowing the parameters in both the…

Computation · Statistics 2022-10-14 Parfait Munezero , Mattias Villani , Robert Kohn

The pricing of financial derivatives, which requires massive calculations and close-to-real-time operations under many trading and arbitrage scenarios, were largely infeasible in the past. However, with the advancement of modern computing,…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2019-06-18 Wei-Cheng Chen , Wei-Ho Chung

In this paper we derive an easily computed approximation to European basket call prices for a local volatility jump-diffusion model. We apply the asymptotic expansion method to find the approximate value of the lower bound of European…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2013-10-15 Guoping Xu , Harry Zheng

In this paper we propose a closed-form approximation for the price of basket options under a multivariate Black-Scholes model, based on Taylor expansions and the calculation of mixed exponential-power moments of a Gaussian distribution. Our…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2014-04-15 Pablo Olivares , Alexander Alvarez

We present a Monte Carlo method to compute efficiently susceptibilites or covariances of two physical variables. The method relies on a generalization of the exchange cluster algorithm to any model of interacting particles with any $2$-body…

Computational Physics · Physics 2025-02-11 Assaraf Roland , Chevreau Hilaire

This paper examines the problem of pricing spread options under some models with jumps driven by Compound Poisson Processes and stochastic volatilities in the form of Cox-Ingersoll-Ross(CIR) processes. We derive the characteristic function…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2014-09-04 Pablo Olivares , Matthew Cane

The q-Gaussians are discussed from the point of view of variance mixtures of normals and exchangeability. For each q< 3, there is a q-Gaussian distribution that maximizes the Tsallis entropy under suitable constraints. This paper shows that…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-05-14 Marjorie G. Hahn , Xinxin Jiang , Sabir Umarov

We consider closed-form approximations for European put option prices within the Heston and GARCH diffusion stochastic volatility models with time-dependent parameters. Our methodology involves writing the put option price as an expectation…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-02-06 Kaustav Das , Nicolas Langrené

In multivariate extreme value theory (MEVT), the focus is on analysis outside of the observable sampling zone, which implies that the region of interest is associated to high risk levels. This work provides tools to include directional…

Applications · Statistics 2018-12-05 Raúl Torres , Elena Di Bernardino , Henry Laniado , Rosa E. Lillo

In this paper we study the pricing of exchange options under a dynamic described by stochastic correlation with random jumps. In particular, we consider a Ornstein-Uhlenbeck covariance model with Levy Background Noise Process driven by…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-11-29 Olivares Pablo , Villamor Enrique

This paper considers the problem of measuring the credit risk in portfolios of loans, bonds, and other instruments subject to possible default under multi-factor models. Due to the amount of the portfolio, the heterogeneous effect of…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-04-10 Cheng-Der Fuh , Chuan-Ju Wang

We develop a new analysis for portfolio optimisation with options, tackling the three fundamental issues with this problem: asymmetric options' distributions, high dimensionality and dependence structure. To do so, we propose a new…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-09-10 Jonathan Raimana Chan , Thomas Huckle , Antoine Jacquier , Aitor Muguruza

In a stochastic volatility framework, we find a general pricing equation for the class of payoffs depending on the terminal value of a market asset and its final quadratic variation. This allows a pricing tool for European-style claims…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2012-06-12 Lorenzo Torricelli

Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods are widely used in signal processing and communications for statistical inference and stochastic optimization. In this work, we introduce an efficient adaptive Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to draw samples…

Computation · Statistics 2016-03-17 David Luengo , Luca Martino