Related papers: Hurricane Simulation and Nonstationary Extremal An…
The modeling of spatio-temporal trends in temperature extremes can help better understand the structure and frequency of heatwaves in a changing climate. Here, we study annual temperature maxima over Southern Europe using a century-spanning…
Bayesian hierarchical models are proposed for modeling tropical cyclone characteristics and their damage potential in the Atlantic basin. We model the joint probability distribution of tropical cyclone characteristics and their damage…
We investigate the influence of time-varying meteoceanic conditions on coastal flooding under the prism of rare events. Focusing on conditions observed over half tidal cycles, we observe that such data fall within the framework of…
A statistical physical model of the two basic properties of clusters within a hurricane--their convectivity and rotation--reveals a relationship for the time evolution of a hurricane. Non-doppler data from NEXRAD surface radar imagery, of…
Heat waves resulting from prolonged extreme temperatures pose a significant risk to human health globally. Given the limitations of observations of extreme temperature, climate models are often used to characterize extreme temperature…
Mixed modeling of extreme values and random effects is relatively unexplored topic. Computational difficulties in using the maximum likelihood method for mixed models and the fact that maximum likelihood method uses available data and does…
Computing the return times of extreme events and assessing the impact of climate change on such return times is fundamental to extreme event attribution studies. However, the rarity of such events in the observational record makes this task…
The purpose of this paper is to illustrate new techniques for computing multiday extreme precipitation taken from recent theoretical advancements in extreme value theory in the framework of dynamical systems, using historical precipitation…
Bayesian statistical models were developed for the number of tropical cyclones and the rate at which these cyclones became hurricanes in the North Atlantic, North and South Indian, and East and West Pacific Oceans. We find that there is…
Risk management is particularly concerned with extreme events, but analysing these events is often hindered by the scarcity of data, especially in a multivariate context. This data scarcity complicates risk management efforts. Various tools…
Studying extreme events and how they evolve in a changing climate is one of the most important current scientific challenges. Starting from complex climate models, a key difficulty is to be able to run long enough simulations in order to…
In light of intense hurricane activity along the U.S. Atlantic coast, attention has turned to understanding both the economic impact and behaviour of these storms. The compound Poisson-lognormal process has been proposed as a model for…
The task of simplifying the complex spatio-temporal variables associated with climate modeling is of utmost importance and comes with significant challenges. In this research, our primary objective is to tailor clustering techniques to…
Extreme streamflow is a key indicator of flood risk, and quantifying the changes in its distribution under non-stationary climate conditions is key to mitigating the impact of flooding events. We propose a non-stationary process mixture…
Spatial maps of extreme precipitation are crucial in flood protection. With the aim of producing maps of precipitation return levels, we propose a novel approach to model a collection of spatially distributed time series where the…
Global return values of marine wind speed and significant wave height are estimated from very large aggregates of archived ensemble forecasts at +240-h lead time. Long lead time ensures that the forecasts represent independent draws from…
Many global circulation models predict supersonic zonal winds and large vertical shears in the atmospheres of short-period jovian exoplanets. Using linear analysis and nonlinear local simulations, we investigate hydrodynamic dissipation…
Determining the maximum potential limit in the accuracy of hurricane intensity prediction is important for operational practice. Using the phase-space reconstruction method for hurricane intensity time series, here we found that hurricane…
We present nonparametric techniques for constructing and verifying density estimates from high-dimensional data whose irregular dependence structure cannot be modelled by parametric multivariate distributions. A low-dimensional…
Accurate estimation of the frequency and magnitude of successive extreme events in energy demand is critical for strategic resource planning. Traditional approaches based on extreme value theory (EVT) are typically limited to modelling…