Related papers: Hurricane Simulation and Nonstationary Extremal An…

Modelling and forecasting the occurrence of extreme events is especially difficult when the event process is nonstationary, with changes in both the rate at which extremes occur and the magnitude of the extremes when they occur. We approach…

Tropical cyclones present a serious threat to many coastal communities around the world. Many numerical weather prediction models provide deterministic forecasts with limited measures of their forecast uncertainty. Standard postprocessing…

Metocean extremes often vary systematically with covariates such as direction and season. In this work, we present non-stationary models for the size and rate of occurrence of peaks over threshold of metocean variables with respect to one-…

Boundary layer processes drive the air-sea exchange of momentum, heat, and moisture that powers and shapes hurricanes. The height of the boundary layer is a critical parameter in engineering and meteorological models of hurricane wind…

During hurricane seasons, emergency managers and other decision makers need accurate and `on-time' information on potential storm surge impacts. Fully dynamical computer models, such as the ADCIRC tide, storm surge, and wind-wave model take…

Information about the hydro-meteorological parameters during the extreme sea storms is of significant importance for the sustainable development in the context of flood risk for the coastal areas. Usually there is a lack of sufficiently…

Storm surge is a major natural hazard in coastal regions, responsible both for significant property damage and loss of life. Accurate, efficient models of storm surge are needed both to assess long-term risk and to guide emergency…

We present a statistical model for the unconditional mean tracks of hurricanes. Our model is a semi-parametric scheme that averages together observed hurricane displacements. It has a single parameter that defines the averaging length…

In environmental science applications, extreme events frequently exhibit a complex spatio-temporal structure, which is difficult to describe flexibly and estimate in a computationally efficient way using state-of-art parametric…

Understanding the spatial extent of extreme precipitation is necessary for determining flood risk and adequately designing infrastructure (e.g., stormwater pipes) to withstand such hazards. While environmental phenomena typically exhibit…

Nor'easters frequently impact the North American East Coast, bringing hazardous precipitation, winds, and coastal flooding. Accurate simulation of their pressure and wind fields is essential for forecasting, risk assessment, and…

Tropical cyclones are affected by a large number of climatic factors, which translates into complex patterns of occurrence. The variability of annual metrics of tropical-cyclone activity has been intensively studied, in particular since the…

Extratropical cyclones are large-scale weather systems which are often the source of extreme weather events in Northern Europe, often leading to mass infrastructural damage and casualties. Such systems create a local vorticity maxima which…

In a recent paper Rousseau-Rizzi and Emanuel (2019) presented a derivation of an upper limit on maximum hurricane velocity at the surface. This derivation was based on a consideration of an infinitely narrow (differential) Carnot cycle with…

The third paper of the series (see previous ones in Refs.[1-2]) discusses basic physicalprocesses in the (quasi-) steady hurricane boundary layer (HBL), develops an approximate airflow model, establishes the HBL structure, and presents…

We develop a method for the evaluation of extreme event statistics associated with nonlinear dynamical systems, using a small number of samples. From an initial dataset of design points, we formulate a sequential strategy that provides the…

This paper demonstrates how principle component analysis can be used to determine the distinct factors that house the terms that explain the variance among the co-dependent variables and how non-response analysis can be applied to model the…

Then detection and identification of extreme weather events in large-scale climate simulations is an important problem for risk management, informing governmental policy decisions and advancing our basic understanding of the climate system.…

In this paper, we predict severity of extreme weather events (tropical storms, hurricanes, etc.) using buoy data time series variables such as wind speed and air temperature. The prediction/forecasting method is based on various forecasting…

Accurate information on waves and storm surges is essential to understand coastal hazards that are expected to increase in view of global warming and rising sea levels. Despite the recent advancement in development and application of…